Pi Securities expects GFPT Public Company Limited (SET: GFPT) to report a net profit of THB 483 million for the first quarter of 2026, representing a 24% year-on-year decrease but a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase. Compared to the first quarter of 2025, the lower profit is attributed to a high base in the previous year and a decline in exports to China. However, the improved margin supports growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.
Revenue for 1Q26 is projected at THB 4,278 million, down 8% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting lower export volumes—anticipated at 7,500 tons compared to 8,700 tons in 1Q25 and 8,000 tons in 4Q25—following a halt in exports to China since late last year. Domestically, chicken prices have risen to THB 40.5 per kilogram, up 1% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter.
Gross margin is expected at 14.5%, an improvement from 14% in 1Q25 and 14.2% in 4Q25, benefiting from lower-cost inventory. Selling and administrative expenses are projected at THB 321 million, dropping 12% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter, partly due to lower transportation costs resulting from reduced exports.
Share of profit from investments in associates is estimated at THB 150 million, down significantly by 53% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter. This decline is mainly attributed to weaker domestic chicken carcass prices, which dropped to THB 14 from THB 16.5 in 1Q25, and to a slowdown in chicken exports impacting Mckey. Tax expenses are expected at THB 26 million, representing a decrease of 25% year-on-year and 61% quarter-on-quarter.
Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, revenue is anticipated to recover seasonally as export volumes are expected to increase. Prices may also adjust in line with rising costs, particularly for corn and soybean meal, which now stand at THB 11 and THB 16.5 per kilogram, respectively. The extent to which these price shifts can be passed on remains to be seen, as it will impact gross margins.
Given rising input costs and the ongoing suspension of exports to China, Pi Securities has revised its full-year 2026 net profit forecast for GFPT down by 7%, now expecting THB 1,967 million—a 19% year-on-year decline. Gross margin assumptions have been adjusted to 14.6%, down from 15%, and export volumes are now forecast to remain flat rather than growing by the previously estimated 3%.
Despite these challenges, the brokerage maintains its ‘Buy’ recommendation on a speculative basis, supported by rising chicken prices and the closing share price that is still more than 37% below its fair value estimate for 2026, which is set at THB 12.60 per share (8x PER 2026).
