Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has released an analysis of Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: PR9), indicating a weak start to 2026 but anticipating a gradual recovery throughout the year. For the first quarter of 2026, KKPS forecasts core profit to decline by 4% year-on-year (YoY) to THB 192 million.
This decrease is largely attributed to a slight 1% YoY growth in Thai patient revenue, restrained by ongoing weak economic conditions. Conversely, revenue from international patients is expected to rise by 10% YoY, predominantly driven by an increase in patients from the Middle East and Myanmar, although patient inflows from Cambodia and China are projected to decrease compared to the previous year.
Revenue is estimated to grow by 3% YoY in 1Q26. However, EBITDA margin is set to decline to 24% from 25% in the same period last year as a result of higher fixed costs, notably a 9-10% YoY rise in depreciation.
PR9 has proactively increased its medical supplies inventory as a hedge against a prolonged Middle East conflict, which has led to an extra expense of up to THB 5 million. This heightened spending is another factor weighing on the company’s profits in the first quarter.
Looking ahead to 2Q26, KKPS expects a recovery in earnings, fueled by increased revenue from Middle Eastern patients following Ramadan. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, patient volumes from the Middle East were relatively steady in April, and KKPS anticipates a further rise due to pent-up demand.
KKPS expects PR9 to implement cost control measures, supporting margin stability. The brokerage projects 2026 full-year revenue to grow by 4% (+2% for Thai patients and +10% for international patients), keeping the EBITDA margin steady at 24%. Consequently, core profit for the full year is expected to increase by 3% to THB 846 million.
Reflecting the softer-than-expected first quarter, KKPS has revised down its profit forecasts for 2026-2028 by 6-8%. Risk-free rate and risk premium assumptions have also been reduced to 2% and 7.5%, down from 3% and 8%, respectively, reflecting a change in the house view. The price objective has been lowered from THB 28.5 to THB 24.5 per share.
KKPS maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on PR9, citing the belief that the weaker profit performance is temporary and that the current share price has largely factored in the impact from the Middle East conflict. Notably, PR9 is trading at an attractive 2026 estimated P/E ratio of 15x, underscoring its valuation appeal.
