Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) has issued an analysis of CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited (SET: CK) regarding its first-quarter 2026 earnings performance. The company’s net profit for 1Q26 is estimated at THB 280 million, remaining flat year-on-year but representing a 35% decline quarter-on-quarter.
The QoQ decrease is largely attributed to a drop in the share of profit from associates, which is projected at THB 286 million, down 49% from the previous quarter but up 7% year-on-year. This decline is primarily due to seasonal factors affecting CK Power (CKP).
Despite this, the company’s core construction operations remain robust. Revenue is expected to reach THB 12.2 billion, an increase of 17% quarter-on-quarter and 4% year-on-year, reflecting accelerated progress in ongoing key projects such as the Orange Line mass transit, the Luang Prabang power plant, and the Den Chai dual-track railway.
Gross profit margin is projected at 7.5%, largely unchanged from 7.7% in 1Q25, and an improvement from 6.9% in 4Q25. Operating expenses, including selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A), as well as interest expenses, are expected to decrease quarter-on-quarter.
Looking ahead, the company’s performance in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to improve quarter-on-quarter. This will be supported by higher seasonal contributions from associates such as BEM and CKP, as well as recognition of dividend income from TTW.
CK’s share price has risen rapidly, up 10% over the past week and 56% year-to-date, resulting in limited upside relative to Finansia’s fair price of THB 19.00 per share. Nonetheless, CK continues to lag behind STECON, and the short-term sentiment remains positive amid news of the government moving forward with infrastructure investments.
Finansia anticipates progress on new project tenders in the second half of 2026, which includes the Double Deck expressway currently awaiting Cabinet approval, with CK positioned to benefit from potential contracts linked to BEM. The brokerage maintains a ‘Speculative Buy’ recommendation on the stock.
