FSS International Investment Advisory Securities (FSSIA) disclosed that Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited (SET: GPSC) reported a net profit of THB 1.71 billion for 1Q26, marking a 14.8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 51% surge year-on-year, closely aligning with the securities firm’s projections but exceeding market expectations by 17%.
The result was mainly driven by a strong showing from the Small Power Producer (SPP) business, which benefitted from an improved contribution margin. This uplift was attributed to a greater drop in gas prices compared to the electricity tariff (Ft) reduction, as well as a 4% QoQ rise in electricity sales to both EGAT and industrial users due to seasonality. In contrast, the Independent Power Producer (IPP) segment, particularly GHECO-1, posted a slight loss owing to an 88-day maintenance shutdown.
Profit sharing from associates fell QoQ, as there were no special gains recorded this quarter, unlike the previous period, which included THB 515 million from an additional 10% stake acquisition in RPCL power plant. However, this was mitigated by lower operating expenses and reduced interest payments following loan prepayments and declining interest rates. Additionally, GPSC booked FX gains of THB 226 million from USD-denominated assets, resulting in a normalized profit of THB 1.94 billion in 1Q26 (-23% QoQ, but +128% YoY).
Looking ahead, FSSIA expects 2Q26 earnings to soften QoQ as gas prices edge up while the Ft adjustment remains limited. Nevertheless, the impact on SPP margins should be contained due to a government-imposed gas price cap, with any excess to be gradually compensated next year. This suggests limited downside risk to 2026 earnings. If geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a quicker fall in gas prices, GPSC’s share price may see upside.
FSSIA maintains its 2026 normalized profit forecast at THB 6.6 billion (+18.3% YoY), with a target price of THB 54 and a “Buy” recommendation.
