On Tuesday at 2:43 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of Betagro Public Company Limited (SET: BTG) gained 2.03% or THB 0.40 to THB 20.10, with a trading value of THB 127.07 million.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has released its latest analysis on BTG, projecting a mild decrease in second-quarter 2026 earnings on a quarter-on-quarter basis to approximately THB 900 million, driven by weaker domestic chicken prices and rising cost of goods sold, as the company begins to replenish its inventory with new, higher-priced raw materials.
Year-on-year, profits are expected to decline significantly, as the comparable period last year marked a high base. However, Yuanta regards this quarter as the low point for the year—a scenario already reflected in BTG’s share price.
The brokerage notes a second consecutive week of recovery in domestic pork prices, a trend expected to continue. This is attributed to accelerated selling by small-scale farmers concerned about the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD-SAT1), for which no direct vaccine currently exists.
The result is an anticipated substantial reduction in pork supply, setting the stage for a sharp and swift rebound in prices by the third quarter of 2026. Domestic consumption is also forecast to pick up, driven by demand stimulus through the ‘Thai Chuay Thai Plus’ program.
Experts estimate it will take at least 8 to 12 months to restore pork supply to previous levels. Large operators such as BTG, who possess robust biosecurity measures, are poised to benefit from having marketable pork during this period—much as occurred during the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak.
Additionally, ongoing conflict in key regions continues to support strong exports of Thai chicken, with heightened demand from customers in Europe and Japan seeking to secure food supplies through extended orders into 3Q26. As overseas demand absorbs domestic chicken supply, local prices are set to be bolstered, with egg prices also starting to rise recently.
On the input cost front, Yuanta points to pressure from higher animal feed costs in the second quarter, buffered by existing lower-cost inventories and incremental price hedging. While feed corn—constituting about 50% of the feed mix—has risen by approximately 20% over the past two months, potential approval of corn imports from the U.S. (priced below domestic levels) could alleviate future cost pressure as early as the fourth quarter.
Soybean meal, which makes up 25–30% of feed, has stabilized and is currently at its lowest price in three months, with further declines expected. Wheat prices, accounting for 10–20% of the mix, have passed their peak and continued to slide over the previous month, reaching a two-month low with the possibility for further decreases if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease and energy prices fall.
BTG is one of only three companies authorized to export pork to Malaysia, and exports are set to climb from 200–400 pigs per month to around 5,000 in the second quarter, with projections reaching 10,000 per month by the fourth quarter. This increased export activity is helping draw supply out of the domestic market. Coupled with persistent disease-driven supply constraints and a rebound in domestic demand, the stage is set for improved earnings performance.
Yuanta has revised its full-year 2026 net profit forecast upward by 8% to THB 4.96 billion, reflecting a gross profit margin adjustment to 15.6%, within BTG’s target range of 15–17%. This optimization stems from a strategic shift toward higher-margin products and channels.
Following these, the brokerage gives a ‘Buy’ recommendation on BTG, setting a target price at THB 25.50 per share, citing a price-to-earnings ratio at 10x. Notably, the stock price implies a 29% upside from current levels.
