CLSA has raised its SET Index target from 1,550 to 1,620 by the end of 2026, attributing the upgrade to robust economic fundamentals and a strong recovery in key sectors. The brokerage highlights solid GDP growth, resilient exports, and an ongoing rebound in tourism, particularly among Chinese visitors, as primary drivers for the positive outlook on Thailand’s equity market.
The brokerage firm highlights solid GDP growth, strong exports, and a continued rebound in tourism—particularly Chinese arrivals, which rose 22.7% YoY to 2.3 million from January to May 2026. Overall tourist arrivals reached 14 million, a slight 2.3% drop year-on-year.
Investment surged 9.9% YoY in the first quarter, with growth expected to accelerate as consumption and tourism strengthen. CLSA highlights that macro momentum is buoyed by ample market liquidity and the ongoing geopolitical easing war in the Middle East, which is expected to support consumption and tourism but may temporarily weigh on energy stocks due to anticipated oil price corrections.
Inflation averaged 3% in 2Q26, but CLSA does not foresee a rate hike this year. In tech, the AI theme remains supportive, although the Thai market’s exposure is largely limited to DELTA and, to a lesser extent, HANA—whose AI-related revenue is projected to rise from 1% this year to 7% in 2027.
Retailers are expected to deliver weak same-store sales growth in 2Q26, reflecting modest gains from government stimulus. However, CLSA’s top picks for the remainder of the year focus on banks, telcos, and selective tourism and consumer stocks: ADVANC, CENTEL, CPALL, CPN, KBANK, and KTB. Banks are favored for their yield and potential loan growth as the conflict subsides, while telcos are expected to provide resilient earnings and steady liquidity.
