Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on June 11, 2026, that the Thai market may potentially experience a short-term correction, pressured by international markets, especially the U.S. equity market, which is showing early signs of a pullback in the technology sector after the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed back above 4.5%.
Although U.S. inflation (CPI) came in at 4.2%, aligned with market expectations, and core inflation rose only 0.2%, below the consensus estimate of 0.3%, suggesting that core goods price pressures are not intensifying, the market remains concerned about the short-term U.S. interest rate direction, particularly after the rebound in bond yields.
At the same time, KSS assessed that the tariff’s effect on inflation will continue to gradually diminish over the next year, as last year’s commodity price base was higher than this year, given the fading impact of tariff measures. This implies that medium-term inflation may soften, although short-term energy price volatility stemming from the Middle East situation still requires close monitoring.
The Middle East remains a risk factor to watch as the U.S. has taken a firmer stance towards Iran, driving up crude oil prices. However, oil prices have not reached new highs and continue to hover near $95 per barrel, reflecting that markets do not yet expect the situation to escalate significantly.
Mr. Koraphat set the SET Index’s support level at 1,553 and 1,545 points, with resistance at 1,578 and 1,584 points. He believes that the Thai market may perform better than some parts of North Asia’s markets due to more attractive stock valuations, support from dividend stocks, and expectations regarding government measures to support long-term savings and investment in Thailand.
Domestically, the key catalyst is the ongoing discussion between the Stock Exchange of Thailand, the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations, and the Ministry of Finance on the Thailand Individual Savings Account (TISA) scheme. Clarity on this project will help strengthen the domestic investment base and make Thailand’s capital markets structurally stronger in the long term.
For investment strategy, KSS recommends focusing on the banking sector, as pressure from Indonesia-related issues has started to ease. Thai banks also have positive factors from the improving trend in fee income and net interest margins (NIM), both potentially passed their lowest point.
Additionally, interest rates in Thailand are expected to remain low until at least the end of 2027 to support the investment cycle and stimulate the still-fragile domestic demand. Many banks aim to raise return on equity (ROE) ratios, which also means higher potential dividend payments for investors.
Moreover, several banks have proactively set aside loan loss provisions since 2Q26 in anticipation of risks from wars and global uncertainty, strengthening their fundamentals. Attractive bank stocks include KBANK and KTB.
KSS also recommends ADVANC as a defensive play expected to benefit from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which should boost data usage. Meanwhile, JAS and MONO see positive sentiment on their content and sports platform ecosystem; however, clarity on subscriber numbers and subsequent fundamental impacts still needs monitoring.
