Bualuang Upgrades AOT Target to THB68 on PSC Hike, Projecting Robust Cash Flow

Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (SET: AOT) has raised its Passenger Service Charge (PSC) for international flights to THB 1,120 per person, up from THB 730, effective for tickets purchased for travel from June 20 onward. The increase, which will be integrated into airline ticket prices, is expected to strengthen AOT’s revenue stream and enhance its long-term operational capabilities.

Despite the THB 390 increase, the additional PSC represents a modest proportion of overall international long-haul ticket prices. Promotional fares with Thai Airways for European routes start at approximately THB 52,356–98,320 (excluding PSC), with Emirates and Turkish Airlines fares beginning at around THB 48,500 and THB 61,610, respectively. US-bound flights have starting fares of THB 140,000–240,000, showing the PSC hike has minimal impact relative to total ticket prices.

AOT President Paweena Jariyathitipong commented that, although the aviation sector has faced regional challenges, Thailand’s air travel demand growth for 2026 remains strong, with total nationwide flights rising 1.6% year-on-year to around 920,000.

AOT’s major investment initiatives for Suvarnabhumi Airport include a THB 12 billion East Expansion of the main terminal, THB 4 billion for inbound baggage handling upgrades, and a THB 120 billion South Terminal project (to be phased in three stages). Other projects include a fourth runway (THB 20 billion) and further control buildings and utilities, bringing the total planned investments to approximately THB 200 billion.

Additionally, AOT is investing THB 29.39 billion in apron and ground equipment and THB 37.91 billion in a new cargo facility, with contract signings for AOT Ground Aviation Services Co., Ltd. (AOTGA) expected in 3Q26.

Bualuang Securities has selected AOT as its top tourism sector pick, uplifting its DCF-based target price from THB 56 to THB 68 following the PSC revision.

The brokerage highlights the fee increase as a significant driver for robust cash flow, forecasting additional annual revenue of over THB 15 billion from the change. Operating cash flow is projected to rise from THB 26.9 billion in FY2026 to THB 53.3 billion by FY2030. These cash flows will support the company’s wide-ranging expansion projects while maintaining a healthy net debt-to-equity (net D/E) ratio.

Bualuang also tested a scenario with the full-scale South Terminal investment and found that AOT would retain positive free cash flow and a net D/E ratio below 0.5x throughout construction. The increased target price is attributed to both enhanced cash flow forecasts and dispersed capital expenditure, projecting sustainable financial strength and future growth.

Bualuang stated that the market continues to overstate concerns regarding tourism sector slowdowns and investment burdens, underappreciating AOT’s cash-flow generation potential post-PSC hike, which bolsters investment capacity and long-term growth.