Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on June 29, 2026, that the Thai market today and this week will move sideways with potential intraday upward movement, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East.
However, the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran remains a closely watched international factor, as there was another tit-for-tat strike over the weekend, resulting in Asian stock markets opening lower this morning and a slight increase in oil prices.
Nevertheless, recent reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to halt attacks once again and will resume negotiations tomorrow in Qatar. The discussion will now focus on maritime safety in the Strait of Hormuz, which has helped ease market concerns and subsequently led to another decline in oil prices.
Still, any upward movements are likely to be limited, as the market remains in a period of Sector Rotation. This is reflected in selling pressure on stocks that have rallied previously, such as the electronics and upstream energy sectors, with funds rotating into stocks with less upward movement or the so-called Laggard group, such as hospitals, retail, tourism, and hotels.
At the same time, the end of 2Q26 brings its own challenges, with the adjustment of major indices like SET50 and SET100, as well as DELTA exceeding the 10% cap weight threshold. This means that index-tracking funds may need to reduce their holdings in these shares, potentially pressuring DELTA in the next 1-2 days.
Nonetheless, as the new month begins towards the end of the week, the Thai bourse is expected to see some rebound, especially among big-caps that benefit from a reduction in DELTA’s weighting. The SET Index is expected to move within a support level at 1,535 points and resistance level at 1,580 points this week.
Regarding 2Q26 earnings outlook, Mr. Pobchai noted the overall picture may not be very strong. Upstream energy is likely to be clearly affected by falling oil prices, while the retail sector could see a slowdown in same-store sales growth (SSSG).
Sectors expected to post improved 2Q26 earnings include ICT, airlines, and banking. In particular, the banking sector, while profits may not stand out, is still able to maintain performance. Although 2Q26 financial statements may remain weak, the market has largely priced this in and is already looking towards potential improvements in 3Q26.
For the financial sector, Mr. Pobchai believes it is becoming more attractive, especially with the prospect of interest rates remaining unchanged this year. Despite this outlook, financing costs are likely to be stable. While 2Q26 results may be flat, a recovery is anticipated for 3Q26 over both the previous quarter and the same period last year.
Support for financial stocks comes from government measures to reduce Thai citizens’ expense burdens, which enhance repayment ability and loan growth. Meanwhile, the net interest margin (NIM) is likely to improve with the gradual recovery in lending and stable funding costs. As such, the finance sector is seen as one investors should keep an eye on, especially as prices have already corrected and are beginning to recover steadily.
