Bernstein has significantly raised its price target on SanDisk, adjusting it to $3,000 from $1,700 while maintaining an Outperform rating. SanDisk’s shares, currently priced at $2,050, have soared over 4,300% in the past year—a testament to the company’s dominant standing in the memory storage industry.
Bernstein highlighted that SanDisk’s new long-term agreements feature upfront financial commitments that provide considerable downside protection, distinguishing them from previous take-or-pay arrangements. These contracts are dynamic, with the ratio of financial guarantees to remaining contract value increasing over time as revenue is recognized, thus offering stronger protection during the latter period of the agreements.
The firm estimates the floor price in SanDisk’s recent agreements at $0.29 per gigabyte, aligning with the anticipated average selling prices for Q2 2026. Most contracts span three to five years, whereas competitor Micron’s are typically five years but offer lower floor prices.
Scenario analyzes by Bernstein showed that even in the event of a severe market downturn, SanDisk’s earnings through fiscal 2030 would be substantially insulated by these long-term deals. With 60% of sales volumes covered, SanDisk’s estimated fiscal 2030 earnings per share could reach $214, even with a sharp 72% decline in average selling price.
With a P/E ratio of 68 and a PEG ratio of 0.18, Bernstein sees SanDisk as attractively valued given its growth trajectory. The firm raised its fiscal 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates to $243 and $272 respectively in its base case, and to $350 and $400 in its bull scenario, anticipating a prolonged favorable pricing environment.
Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight with a new target of $2,300, while Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $1,800, citing new business model arrangements. Several analysts are even more bullish, setting price targets as high as $3,250. LSEG consensus indicated the target price for SanDisk at $1,688.58 per share.
The trading of Thai depositary receipts of SanDisk have turned positive in late morning session with SNDK23, a DR issued by Innovest X Securities, rose 0.57% to THB 8.80 per share, while SNDK80, issued by KTB, rose 0.71% to THB 7.05 per share. This is after a drop over the night in the referenced stock, settling 2% down in the U.S., while the after-hour trading shows a slight gain of 0.47%.
