Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) wrote in its analysis that overall consumption in Thailand is likely to remain steady in June compared to May, with average same-store sales (SSS) expected to show negative low single-digit trends, while the figures should remain slightly positive in the second quarter.
Despite a drop in oil prices in June, discretionary spending is set to weaken further on a month-over-month basis, largely impacting construction material retailers such as Siam Global House (GLOBAL) and Home Product Center (HMPRO). These retailers may see an SSS decline of around 300 basis points due to reduced stockpiling and postponed purchasing, as customers expect commodity prices to fall further while consumer sentiment remains weak.
Overseas operations, like CRC Vietnam, are seeing sequential improvement, supported by the narrowing exchange rate gap between the Thai baht and Vietnamese dong. Central Retail Corporation (CRC) and CP All (CPALL) are expected to report positive SSS in 2Q26, according to the brokerage.
In the consumer staples segment, June SSS should be steady with May’s levels, resulting in low single-digit quarterly gains. The weakest performance is expected from hypermarkets, pressured by declining sales in non-food items and fresh foods, especially meat, which has suffered from lower prices.
On the other hand, smaller retail formats like CPALL’s convenience stores and CRC’s Tops Supermarket should perform relatively better, helped by government stimulus programs and higher consumer mobility due to improved weather conditions compared to last year.
Discretionary spending is expected to remain under pressure, with SSS dropping into negative low single-digits and offsetting gains from April, leaving 2Q26 SSS roughly flat for the segment. Ongoing delays in construction activities, due to previous hikes in construction material prices and weak sentiment, continue to dampen demand. Notably, KKPS believes slumping SSS for GLOBAL and HMPRO is already reflected in current stock prices.
Looking ahead, Kiatnakin expects an eventual recovery in leisure discretionary spending as geopolitical tensions ease and tourist activity returns. CRC remains the brokerage’s preferred stock pick for its strong positioning in fashion to take advantage of recovering tourism, disciplined inventory management supporting gross margins, and ongoing cost control, which should drive further earnings improvements in the second half of 2026.
KKPS gives a ‘Buy’ rating on CRC and CPALL, with a target price of THB 24.64 and THB 61.47 per share, respectively. Meanwhile, CPAXT, GLOBAL, and HMPRO are assigned ‘Neutral’, with a target price of THB 18.50, THB 7.80, and THB 7.58 per share, respectively.
