Morgan Stanley has issued an ‘Overweight’ rating on Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP), with a target price of THB 49.30 per share. The brokerage believes that BCP’s share price is set to rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days, driven by multiple supportive factors.
According to Morgan Stanley, refining markets are expected to tighten once export restrictions are lifted. This anticipated shift is likely to occur alongside increased crude oil availability, which could benefit BCP.
While fuel product margins may moderate from their current highs, the decline is expected to be cushioned by ongoing crude discounts. In fact, Asian refiners like BCP may be positioned to report stronger-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter of 2026 and into 2027.
Another tailwind is the trend of higher power prices in the United States, which should add further support to the company’s earnings. Although inventory-related losses are forecasted to weigh on financial results during the June quarter, Morgan Stanley projects that BCP’s underlying profitability for the upcoming earnings season will be significantly stronger compared to the 2025 period.
Looking ahead, the brokerage anticipates that the 2Q26 reporting season could spark an earnings upgrade cycle for BCP. The current valuation, trading at just 0.6x projected 2027 book value, is described as undemanding and offers an attractive entry point for investors.
Morgan Stanley estimates that there is more than an 80% probability, or a ‘highly likely’ scenario, that these positive developments will materialize, reinforcing the conviction behind their overweight recommendation.
