KGI Securities (Thailand) expects home improvement retailers Dohome (DOHOME), Siam Global House (GLOBAL), and Home Product Center (HMPRO) to post a combined 2Q26 net profit of THB 2.3 billion, representing 12% year-on-year growth but a 5% quarter-on-quarter decline.
DOHOME is anticipated to lead earnings growth, driven by strong same-store sales growth (SSSG) from back-office demand related to accelerated government budget disbursement and significant gross margin expansion due to low-cost inventory and high steel margins. HMPRO is forecast to see flat earnings both YoY and QoQ amid weak spending sentiment and limited gross margin gains. GLOBAL is expected to enjoy solid YoY growth, fueled by higher house-brand sales, but may see a QoQ earnings dip due to seasonality and ongoing soft SSSG.
Looking ahead, KGI notes that the third quarter’s rainy season, typically a low period for construction, should lead to QoQ earnings declines across the home improvement segment. However, DOHOME could maintain YoY earnings momentum in 3Q26-4Q26, thanks in part to a low base effect from 3Q25, when steel shortages and slower government spending had depressed margins.
GLOBAL is expected to be stronger over the medium to long term, benefiting from its house-brand strategy and stable margin improvement. HMPRO’s large store network, on the other hand, is likely to cap its earnings growth, even as it delivers modest gains.
While DOHOME boasts a forecast 29% YoY EPS growth for the year, KGI cautions this is likely to be temporary due to the exceptional steel margin environment, resulting in more muted 2% YoY EPS growth in 2027. From 2019-2025, DOHOME’s sales CAGR was 8% with an earnings CAGR of -3%, compared with HMPRO and GLOBAL’s respective rates of 1-2% sales CAGR and -1% earnings CAGR.
KGI maintains ‘Neutral’ ratings on DOHOME and GLOBAL, with 1H27 target prices of THB 3.90 and THB 7.40, respectively. HMPRO is rated ‘Outperform’ with a 1H27 target price of THB 7.10. The broker sees a short-term trading opportunity in DOHOME due to strong 2Q26 and potentially robust 2H26 results.
For long-term investors, GLOBAL and HMPRO remain the preferred choices as GLOBAL benefits from ongoing margin expansion and cost-control initiatives, while HMPRO—despite limited earnings growth—has a 5% dividend yield, a share repurchase program, and trades at a valuation discount to peers.
Furthermore, KGI’s ratings across the commerce sector are as follows: ‘Outperform’ for CPALL (target price THB 59.00), CRC (THB 23.80), and MOSHI (THB 44.00); ‘Neutral’ for CPAXT (THB 16.00) and MRDIYT (THB 10.30).
