Pi Securities has reaffirmed its “Buy” recommendation on Central Pattana Public Company Limited (SET: CPN), with a target price of THB 78, supported by a positive outlook for 2Q26 earnings. Net profit for the quarter is projected to reach THB 4,614 million, a 7% increase year-on-year, largely fueled by revenue recognition from new malls launched in late 2025 and early 2026, as well as ongoing growth in foot traffic, despite a seasonal decline from 1Q26.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, further growth is anticipated from the new Central Northville. Pi noted a potential revision to its current full-year net profit forecast of THB 18,728 million, as first-half earnings are already tracking at over 51% of the full-year estimate.
For 2Q26, total core revenue is expected at THB 12,684 million (+9% YoY, +1% QoQ). This includes THB 11,582 million from retail and food court leasing, up 8% YoY, benefiting from both new projects and sustained visitor growth. The hotel segment is projected to rise 5% YoY with new property additions, though down 16% QoQ from the seasonal factor. Property revenue is forecast at THB 637 million (+29% YoY, +5% QoQ), mainly from low-rise developments.
Gross margin is estimated at 59%, a slight improvement from 58% in 2Q25 but down from 61% in 1Q26, with the dip attributed to higher depreciation from new shopping malls and a less profitable property segment. Administrative expenses are expected to be THB 2,160 million (+8% YoY, -1% QoQ).
Other income is forecast at THB 696 million, a 32% YoY drop, mainly due to reduced investment income. Share of profit from associates is seen at THB 754 million (+49% YoY), supported by the Dusit Central Park condominium and CPNREIT’s integration of Central Rama 2. This, however, represents a 5% QoQ decline for seasonal reasons.
For the remainder of 2026, rental revenue is expected to continue rising, helped by Central Northville, but the slow pace of tourist arrivals, especially in June, will require monitoring. No further new shopping centers are planned for 2026, but 2-3 new hotels will open, and major malls including The Central and CenTRal cENtrAL are scheduled to launch in early and 2Q27 respectively.
With the current trajectory, Pi may review its profit estimates following the mid-August earnings announcement. The “Buy” recommendation is maintained, reflecting CPN’s solid operational momentum and clear expansion plans, anchored by future projects such as The Central and CenTRal cENtrAL. The target price remains at THB 78 per share, equivalent to 18.7x PER for 2026.
