Bank of America (BofA) has revised its global memory industry forecasts upon resuming coverage of SK Hynix, highlighting key developments in DRAM and NAND pricing as well as significant shareholder returns from Samsung Electronics.
BofA’s updated industry model incorporates SK Hynix’s subdued 2Q DRAM average selling price (ASP), up only 30% quarter-on-quarter, against peers’ gains of 45-70%. However, Hynix is projected to see a rapid ASP recovery in 3Q (+25%) along with increased shipments of the advanced HBM4 memory. Kioxia, meanwhile, has issued bullish guidance, targeting a 35% QoQ revenue jump in 3Q, equating to a nearly 20% NAND ASP rise—outpacing the industry average.
The report also anticipates last-minute memory price hikes in 4Q, with DRAM up 8% QoQ and NAND rising 3%, followed by stable or mildly correcting pricing through 2027. Nonetheless, 2027 average selling prices for memory are expected to remain above 2026 levels. BofA projects price declines could occur in 2028 (DRAM down 8%, NAND down 14%), characterized as a healthy market correction, not a downturn.
Notably, NAND spot prices rallied strongly last week—up 5-6% on newer chips and over 10% for legacy models—driven by rush orders from Tier 2 or white-box OEMs ahead of the peak 4Q season. DRAM spot prices also posted gains of 1-2%. These trends suggest stronger-than-seasonal demand amid tight supply, with BofA’s memory market indicator remaining robust at 183 (versus mid-/up-cycle levels of 100/130).
Nanya Tech’s July sales surged to NT$44 billion, a staggering month-on-month gain of 49% and a 720% increase year-on-year. Meanwhile, Korea’s semiconductor exports totaled US$42 billion—down 9% month-on-month but still up 179% year-on-year.
Samsung Electronics is expected to announce major buyback and cash dividend plans, utilizing 50% of 2024-26 free cash flow after annual dividends. Options include special dividends of over W30 trillion in 3Q or 4Q, W40 trillion-plus share buybacks in 1H27, and year-end dividends to be paid in April 2027. Samsung also plans to allocate over W30 trillion in treasury shares for employee bonuses. SK Hynix is anticipated to return 50% of FCF, focusing even more on buybacks (W40 trillion+) than on cash dividends (W20 trillion+).
Finally, BofA notes diverging fortunes in Korea’s CVD equipment and OLED materials segment, cutting its price objective on Wonik IPS to W85,000 (from W95,000) due to weaker CVD sales, while maintaining a W70,000 target for Duksan Neolux, which remains a growth pick on solid OLED materials and turbomachinery sales.
