Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on August 19, 2026, stated that the Thai stock market is likely to weaken today, following trends in regional bourses. The possibility for domestic equities to move against global trends is quite limited due to multiple negative pressures occurring simultaneously.
A major factor originates from the ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-Iran relations, as a ceasefire agreement remains unresolved. This fuels concerns that heightened tensions could resurface, driving oil prices higher. This, in turn, raises worries that U.S. inflation may remain elevated, leading to higher bond yields—a negative for risky assets worldwide.
Additionally, Asian markets face selling pressure in technology stocks, particularly the South Korean bourse, which slumped sharply from selloffs in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This may impact the sentiment of electronics stocks in Thailand, especially DELTA, a heavyweight in the SET Index.
Regarding the Middle East, Mr. Chaiyot noted that while investors may have grown accustomed to prolonged conflicts, similar to the Russia-Ukraine situation, the impacts differ for Thailand due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy imports. Therefore, continued issues at the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably affect domestic oil prices and energy costs.
Thai equities also face company-specific pressures, particularly TTB, following ING Group’s big lot share sales. This could negatively influence short-term sentiment for TTB shares and add to the general market pressure.
As for foreign fund flows, after a strong rally of around 20-25% in the Thai market—outperforming several global markets, supported by capital rotation from AI and data center-related names abroad to lower-valuation, higher-dividend-yield markets like Thailand—investors must now refocus on economic fundamentals.
Although recent Thai economic data exceeded expectations, growth remains below 2%, still less than many neighboring countries. As a result, foreign fund inflows may start to decelerate, leading investors to reconsider whether economic growth can support the market’s recent rally.
Looking ahead to 3Q26 corporate earnings, the outlook remains positive. Market EPS is expected to potentially reach around THB 100, the highest in several years. Key drivers include energy, banking, retail, and ICT sectors.
The energy sector benefits from higher oil prices and strong refining and petrochemical business earnings. Banks are expected to maintain high profits in Q3, while ICT’s defensive nature limits war-related impacts. Retail sector performance, however, depends on each company’s growth capability.
However, after exceptional profits by refiners and petrochem firms in 2Q26, some slowdown is possible in Q3. Still, listed companies’ profits remain strong, in line with KSS’ full-year forecasts.
For investment strategy, Mr. Chaiyot recommends PTT, given its 2Q26 profit exceeding THB 50 billion, with Q3 expected to remain solid thanks to robust subsidiary performance. The recommendation is “BUY” with a target price of THB 44.50.
Another pick is BH, benefiting from roughly 8% year-on-year growth in Middle Eastern tourist arrivals, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions—outperforming expectations. With around 30% of BH’s patients coming from the Middle East, it stands out among hospitals, with earnings projected to grow quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. The recommendation is “BUY” with a target price of THB 225.
