On Friday, the share price of IRPC Public Company Limited (SET: IRPC) at the time of 2:51 p.m. was THB 2.50, a THB 0.10 or 4.17% increase, with a total trading value of THB 276.03 million.
Globlex Securities stated in its analysis that IRPC reported a net profit of THB 2.9 billion for 2Q26, showing a reversal from a net loss of THB 2.1 billion in the same period last year, and a 63% decline from the previous quarter due to several special items.
Core operating performance has significantly improved, thanks to higher refining margins and wider spreads in petrochemical product prices. Excluding special items, IRPC’s core operating profit reached THB 4 billion, up 1.65 times from the previous quarter and 8.5 times from the same period last year.
A key support factor was the increased market gross integrated margin (GIM) at $17.10 per barrel, following the market gross refining margin (GRM) at $13.50 per barrel, comprising a refining margin of $9.40 per barrel and a lubricant business profit spread of $4.10 per barrel.
In petrochemicals, the GIM for olefins products stood at $1.60 per barrel, aromatics at $1.20 per barrel, and utilities at $0.87 per barrel. However, after accounting for a stock loss of $4.10 per barrel and a hedging loss of $2 per barrel, the Accounting GIM stood at $11.03 per barrel.
The refinery segment remained the main driver for 2Q26, with a utilization rate at 94%, while the lubricant business operated at full capacity at 100%. The refinery’s market GRM was $9.40 per barrel, down from $10.50 per barrel in 1Q26 but significantly higher than $3 per barrel in the same period last year, despite the company facing a crude premium of about $18 per barrel. The business benefited from stronger diesel and jet fuel spreads.
Meanwhile, the residue deep catalytic cracking (RDCC) unit raised its utilization rate to 111%, up from 108% the previous quarter and 103% a year earlier, in line with overall high refining margins.
The petrochemical segment improved in 2Q26, driven by increased product prices as supply was impacted by ongoing Middle East conflicts. The olefins segment’s product-to-feed margin (P2F) rose to $1.60 per barrel, up from $0.12 per barrel in the previous quarter and $1.30 per barrel a year before. Aromatics GIM also increased to $1.20 per barrel, up from $0.45 per barrel the previous quarter and $0.40 per barrel in the same period last year.
Nonetheless, 2Q26 net profit was reduced by several non-operational items: a stock gain of THB 717 million, a loss from inventory valuation adjustment to net realizable value (NRV) of THB 3.22 billion, and a realized loss from oil price hedging of THB 1.19 billion.
Additionally, the company recorded a financial derivatives gain of THB 183 million, an unrealized hedging gain of THB 2 billion, a loss from asset impairment and disposal of THB 27 million, and an investment gain of THB 132 million.
Globlex assesses that margins for the second half of 2026 will be better than previously estimated, particularly the refining margin, supported by ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This will help sustain high refining margins and boost spreads along the petrochemical chain, including olefins, aromatics, and butadiene—key chemical product groups for IRPC.
Given the stronger-than-expected first-half performance and an improved outlook for the second half, the research team has revised up its earnings-per-share forecasts for the next three years to 16.7x, 8.9x, and 1.2x the previous estimates, respectively.
Globlex has also upgraded its recommendation for IRPC from “Hold” to “Buy” and raised the target price to THB 3.20 from THB 2.20, now basing the valuation on a 2026 price-to-book value (P/BV) ratio of 0.8x, up from the prior 0.7x, to reflect stronger-than-expected performance and margins.
