Krungsri Securities continues to rate PTG Energy Public Company Limited (SET: PTG) with a “Buy” recommendation, maintaining a 2027 target price of THB 9.50 per share, and suggests investors consider gradual accumulation during quieter periods.
At the analyst meeting, the company revised its 2026 targets for oil sales and Punthai store expansion downward due to temporary setbacks caused by the energy crisis resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
PTG’s projected oil sales volume for 2026 has been adjusted to a range between a 5% decline and flat growth year-on-year, down from the previous forecast of 3 – 5% growth. This change reflects reduced sales following an oil shortage in March 2026, continued pressure on consumer confidence into April, and softer demand as a result of previous stockpiling and higher prices.
Sales trends began recovering month-on-month from July, with the oil marketing margin remaining strong at THB 1.7 – 1.8 per litre, despite YoY declines still in the single digits.
The company has also lowered its Punthai store expansion target for 2026 to 2,751 locations, compared to the earlier estimate of 2,951. This reduction was attributed to delayed expansion in the DODO format, as well as weaker confidence and lower customer traffic.
However, Punthai’s sales have continued to grow, with first-half 2026 revenue up 62% YoY and a consistent increase in Max Card Plus membership, rising to 1.7 million members, with a target of two million by year-end.
PTG has trimmed its 2026 capital expenditure plan to THB 3 – 4 billion, primarily reflecting the revised store expansion, with over three-quarters of spending allocated to non-oil business initiatives.
Krungsri views these adjustments as neutral: the downward revisions were previously disclosed and factored into estimates following the 2Q26 results. The analyst expects profitability to recover in the second half of 2026, driven by higher oil marketing margins and continued growth at Punthai, building on an improvement after the trough in 1Q26.
Looking ahead, Krungsri anticipates a long-term recovery in both oil and non-oil segments once the situation at the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes. Profitability for PTG is projected to rebound with a core profit compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2026 through 2028, supported by stronger margins and resumed Punthai store expansion.
