Thailand’s exports continued their strong momentum in July 2026, rising 21.6% year-on-year to $34,789.1 million and marking the 25th consecutive month of growth, according to Nantapong Chiralerspong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Ministry of Commerce.
Excluding oil-related products, gold, and strategic assets, exports expanded by 23.3%. TPSO said electronics and products related to hi-tech investment remained the standout performers and key drivers of Thailand’s export sector. For the first seven months of 2026, exports totaled $231,531 million, up 18.2% from the same period last year. Excluding oil-related products, gold, and strategic assets, exports increased by 18.5%.
Nantapong said the electronics cycle continued to show strong growth. Based on TPSO’s initial forecast of 8 – 11% export growth for 2026, he said that if the current trend continues, full-year exports are projected to grow at a double-digit rate, with the latest outlook pointing to growth of more than 11%.
When asked whether exports could expand by 15% this year, Nantapong said, “There is a possibility,” citing the ongoing electronics cycle and expectations from many institutions that the cycle could extend into next year. He added that rising use of AI supports investment in infrastructure and demand for goods in the electronics supply chain.
If exports grow by 12% in 2026, that would translate to approximately $381 billion. At 15% growth, the value would be around $391,267.4 million. For the remaining five months, average export value would need to reach about $31,947.3 million per month.
TPSO said it will continue monitoring the situation for the rest of the year before reconsidering and adjusting its export forecast, expected around October 2026.
Thailand’s imports in July totaled $38,399.6 million, up 36.7%, resulting in a trade deficit of $3,610.5 million. For the first seven months of 2026, imports reached $266,885.5 million, an increase of 37.8%, leading to a trade deficit of $35,354.5 million.
Industrial goods exports rose 24.2% in July, extending growth for the 28th consecutive month. Key growth products included computers, equipment, and components, up 63.2%; mobile phones, equipment, and components, up 160.3%; and electrical circuit boards, up 35.2%. In the first seven months, industrial goods exports expanded by 22%.
Agricultural products rose 0.6% in July, returning to growth after three months. Rice exports increased 5.3%, returning to growth after 21 months, while rubber exports rose 33.8%, expanding for the second consecutive month. However, combined agricultural and agro-industrial exports contracted 1.1% in July and fell 2.9% in the first seven months.
Major export markets continued to expand, led by the United States with growth of 45.3%, the European Union with 31.5%, Japan with 21.3%, and China with 15.2%. Meanwhile, exports to the Middle East contracted 12.1%, while South Asia fell 5.4%.
Nantapong said key supporting factors for exports included strong global demand for technology supply chain and digital infrastructure goods, accelerated imports ahead of changes in U.S. trade policy, and the rebound in key agricultural products as well as the potential of processed foods.
However, accelerated imports are likely to continue as some measures remain unclear, including the Section 301 tariffs regarding excess production capacity, prompting importers to plan and accelerate purchases to mitigate risks.
The main risk factor remains geopolitical tensions, particularly developments in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, which could affect oil prices, energy costs, inflation, and global demand.
Regarding U.S. sanctions on Iran, Nantapong said the impact on oil prices must be monitored. If inflation rises and weakens global demand, Thai exports would be affected. Conversely, if the U.S. maintains or raises interest rates and capital flows into the US dollar, the Thai baht could weaken, which would be positive for Thai exports.
Looking ahead, TPSO expects exports to continue growing well for the rest of 2026, supported by sustained demand for technology and AI-related products. However, uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and the final outcome of U.S. tariffs on Thailand remain key risks to monitor.
