Yuanta Securities (Thailand) wrote that CK Power Public Company Limited (SET: CKP) expects water inflows in 3Q26 to remain within the typical high-season range for its hydropower projects in Laos and that operations should not be affected by Super El Niño during this period. However, significant effects from the phenomenon are anticipated to start in Q4 (from November to December onwards).
Regarding the Luang Prabang Hydroelectric Project (LPCL) in Laos, in which CKP holds a 50% stake and with a generation capacity of 730 MWe, the project is currently under construction, having progressed approximately 77%. The company expects the commercial operation date to proceed as scheduled in 2030. CKP plans to increase its remaining project equity by an additional THB 7,590 million between 2026 and 2029.
For solar projects under construction for Bangkok Expressway and Metro (SET: BEM), CKP stated that the BL1-R Solar Rooftop project (2.8 MW) and BL1-F Solar Farm project (3.9 MW) are both expected to achieve COD within 3Q26.
In terms of the new Power Development Plan (PDP), which is expected to see progress in September 2026 and be actionable by the end of the year, the company is principally interested in participating in bids for new hydropower plants. These projects are likely to be developed in Laos or Vietnam to export electricity to Thailand. CKP is currently conducting site assessments for these opportunities and is also considering participating in further bids for solar power projects.
Concerning direct Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), CKP sees potential opportunities in 1) hydropower projects in Laos, where CKP has considerable expertise, though transmission and cross-border PPAs may pose challenges, and 2) domestic solar projects.
Yuanta’s initial estimate for CKP’s normalized profit in 3Q26 stands at THB 800–900 million, representing quarter-on-quarter growth, supported by the commencement of the hydropower high season in Laos (with no current impact from Super El Niño) and in the absence of maintenance shutdowns at the BIC power plant, as was the case in the previous quarter.
On a year-on-year basis, however, normalized profit is expected to decline due to two main factors: first, a reduction in water volume in Laos from last year, as levels return to normal after last year’s record highs; and second, an increase in natural gas costs to an estimated THB 370–380 per MMBtu, which will compress gross margins at the BIC power plant.
The target price for CKP at the end of 2026 is maintained at THB 2.90 per share, implying an upside of only 11.5%. Yuanta continues to recommend a ‘Trading’ rating, noting the potential for the share price to come under pressure in the medium-to-long term as the impact of an intensifying Super El Niño is expected to materialize from 4Q26 onwards.
