Krungsri Securities (KSS) has released an update following an analyst meeting with SISB Public Company Limited (SET: SISB). SISB management has revised its 2026 student enrollment target to 4,600, down from the previous 4,800, reflecting increased market competition and the impact of a subdued economy on consumer purchasing power.
As of now, SISB enrolls approximately 4,400 students. Management anticipates that, in a worst-case scenario, the student number in the second half of 2026 could remain at around 4,400, about 4% below target. This may lead to a 3–5% year-on-year decline in 2H26 revenues.
For 2027, Thailand is expecting to see six new international schools, raising the total from 280 to 286 institutions, spanning both premium and mid-market segments—a trend that continues to intensify competition. However, management believes the pace of new openings will slow after 2027.
The company also plans to open its seventh school, Marina Singapore International School, in August 2027, targeting 120–200 students and charging tuition 40% below SISB’s average. Currently, around 30 families have expressed interest.
Meanwhile, a tuition fee increase of 3–5% is under consideration for the 2027/28 academic year, following a freeze for 2026/27.
Krungsri expresses a slightly negative view on the meeting, citing a slower recovery in student numbers due to economic and pricing challenges. The revised 2026 student target of 4,600 closely aligns with the brokerage’s forecast of 4,594. However, a worst-case scenario of 4,400 students presents downside risk to income projections in 2H26. No new short-term growth catalysts were identified.
The earnings forecast for 2026 remains unchanged, with net profit expected to decline 8% year-on-year due to sluggish enrollment recovery and persistently high fixed costs. In 2027, net profit is projected to grow 2% year-on-year in line with a similar revenue increase, with the potential tuition hike offering further upside.
As a result, Krungsri recommends a ‘Buy’ rating for SISB at a target price of THB 16.00 per share, using a DCF method (WACC 9.3%). The brokerage views SISB as a defensively attractive stock, backed by expected profit recovery in 2027 from increased enrollment and tuition, growth potential in the mid-market segment, robust cash flow, and consistent dividends.
Notably, SISB currently trades at a 2027 PE of approximately 9.6x, equivalent to a forward PE below -2.0SD, which limits downside risk, according to Krungsri.
