KGI Securities (Thailand) maintained its “Overweight” rating on Thailand’s power sector, citing the draft Power Development Plan 2026 (PDP 2026) as a structural shift toward renewables, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and flexible generation.
The draft plan lowers assumed power demand growth to 2.49% per year from 3.1%, while adopting a loss of load expectation (LOLE) cap of 1.0 day per year. Under the plan, Thailand is set to add 50.9 GW of new capacity in the first 12 years, led by 24.3GW of solar, 14.5GW of BESS, 2.7GW of wind, a 300MW pilot small modular reactor, and 9.1GW of combined-cycle gas turbines.
KGI noted that renewables and storage would account for 76.2% of new capacity, while new gas-fired (CCGT) capacity would be limited to 17.9%. This marks a shift for gas plants from being a growth driver to serving mainly as flexible reserve and baseload assets for system reliability.
The plan also introduces a tougher path for legacy gas power purchase agreements as IPP and SPP contracts expire. Extensions are expected to be limited to plants needed for location-specific reliability, while Adder schemes and legacy purchase-price spreads will not be renewed. KGI said this raises asset-stranding risks, but also creates a new replacement cycle through renewables and BESS.
Thailand’s installed capacity is projected to rise from 54,662 MW in 2026 to 185,000 – 253,000 MW by 2050. Clean energy and renewables are expected to increase from 20 – 22% of capacity today to 65 – 89% by 2050, while gas-fired capacity could decline to below 20 – 30%.
According to KGI, PDP 2026 supports a “Clean Swap” strategy, replacing expiring fossil-fuel PPAs with renewables and BESS instead of new gas capacity. The plan favors renewables+BESS over gas with carbon capture and storage, with average power cost under the RE+BESS case estimated at THB 3.8297 per unit, below THB 3.8859 per unit for CCGT+CCS (carbon capture and storage.
The draft plan also opens a new growth channel through a 2GW pilot Direct PPA scheme, allowing corporates to procure green power directly. KGI remarked that this would support demand from global technology companies, data centers, AI workloads, and electric vehicles.
KGI sees GPSC and GULF as the prime structural winners, capturing major opportunities in utility-scale renewables+BESS, gas, and data centers. BGRIM is expected to benefit from its industrial microgrid footprint through Direct PPA and hyperscale data center demand, while RATCH and EGCO are viewed as second-tier beneficiaries through new capacity, legacy PPA extensions, and asset recycling.
