Bualuang Securities (BLS) wrote in its analysis, identifying infrastructure development—including the electricity system, power grid, data centers, and industrial infrastructure—as a key driver for Thailand’s next major investment cycle. This trend is set to support the growth of artificial intelligence and increased foreign direct investment.
The initial report focuses on Thailand’s draft Power Development Plan 2026-2050 (PDP 2026), which is set for public consultation on September 8, 2026. Using sensitivity models of the PDP 2026 and Direct Power Purchase Agreements (Direct PPAs), the analysis evaluates the impact on major listed power companies: Gulf Development (GULF), Global Power Synergy (GPSC), B.Grimm Power (BGRIM), Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL), and WHA Utilities and Power (WHAUP).
The brokerage highlights five key aspects of PDP 2026 that merit close attention beyond the share of renewable energy. Firstly, electricity demand will be a primary driver, not supply, due to massive data center needs—estimated at 6.8-19.8 GW by 2050—which could significantly shape the overall power structure.
Secondly, natural gas will remain important as a flexible backup for renewables, with projections of 16.8-24.5 GW. Thirdly, regardless of which of the four PDP strategies Thailand adopts, the total new capacity investment through 2037 will be similar at 50.9 GW, making the upcoming investment landscape relatively clear.
Fourth, grid infrastructure, particularly transmission and connection capacity, is seen as the real bottleneck for data center expansion, rather than raw power generation. Fifth, the Direct PPA policy—approved by the National Energy Policy Committee in July 2026—could spur profit growth at varying degrees across different companies.
GPSC may see the highest upside to 2028 earnings, in the range of 25.8-37.5%. GULF is expected to gain 6,000 MW capacity by 2028 from PDP 2026 and Direct PPA, potentially boosting its 2028 net profit by about 12.1%—the highest in Thai-baht term among peers, thanks to its large, diversified business across solar, wind, battery energy storage, and flexible gas-fired plants.
GUNKUL is seen as a high-beta stock with robust 2028 earnings upside and low net gearing, giving it greater headroom for further investment. BGRIM, also a high-beta play, starts with higher leverage, while GPSC’s upside is coupled with the largest gearing increase among the five. WHAUP is emerging as an alternative, requiring less investment to benefit from data center and Eastern Economic Corridor growth themes.
Key factors to watch include outcomes of the PDP 2026 consultation in September and details of wheeling charges under Direct PPA, which remain undisclosed and are crucial for project valuation and profit impact.
As a result, Bualuang maintains an ‘Overweight’ stance on Thai listed power generators during PDP 2026’s finalization, with GULF and GUNKUL highlighted as top picks for their potential to capture new capacity and growth opportunities in the coming cycle.
