KGI Securities (Thailand) has upgraded its food sector rating to “Overweight” from “Neutral”, expecting tighter livestock supply and improving meat prices to support earnings recovery in the second half of 2026 and 2027, outweighing potential pressure from higher feed costs.
GFPT remains the brokerage’s top pick, with an “Outperform” rating and a target price of THB 11.40, supported by strong export momentum and recovering chicken prices. The securities firm also maintains a positive view on BTG, rated “Outperform” with a target price of THB 25.40, while TFG remains not rated.
Domestic meat prices have improved and remain at healthy levels, according to KGI. Quarter-to-date broiler prices rose 9% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to THB 45.5 per kilogram. Swine prices were broadly unchanged YoY but increased 11% QoQ to THB 75.5 per kilogram.
The brokerage expects tighter livestock supply, export demand and the recent price recovery to create a more favorable pricing environment for producers through the second half of 2026 and 2027.
The analyst house maintained its swine price assumptions at THB 67 per kilogram for 2026 and THB 70 for 2027. Its broiler price assumptions remain at THB 41 per kilogram for both years.
Citing the World Meteorological Organization’s August 2026 update, KGI said the probability of El Niño strengthening toward very strong conditions had increased, with the event potentially extending into early 2027.
Previous very strong or super El Niño events in 1997 – 1998 and 2015 – 2016, alongside strong conditions in 2023 – 2024, were historically associated with below-normal rainfall and reduced water availability in Thailand. The broker identified rainfall patterns and water storage through the remainder of 2026 as key indicators of potential crop and feed-supply disruptions.
While a stronger El Niño could lift feed commodity prices, the brokerage expects soybean meal prices to remain broadly range-bound, supported by adequate global soybean supply. Higher temperatures could also constrain livestock production, supporting meat prices.
KGI’s sensitivity analysis indicates that a 0.1-percentage-point increase in gross profit margin would raise projected 2027 net profit by approximately 2.4% for BTG, 0.7% for GFPT and 1.1% for TFG.
The analyst also noted that key risks include fluctuations in feed costs and selling prices, as well as an economic slowdown.
