On Wednesday at 11:28 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) dropped by 5.73% or THB 3.25 to THB 53.50, with a trading value of THB 1.29 billion.
Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) slumped by 6.06% or THB 4.00 to THB 62.00, with a trading value of THB 1.23 billion.
PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC) declined by 4.48% or THB 2.25 to THB 48.00, with a trading value of THB 703.38 million.
IRPC Public Company Limited (SET: IRPC) lost 8.11% or THB 0.24 to THB 2.72, with a trading value of THB 494.37 million.
Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) plummeted by 5.76% or THB 0.80 to THB 13.10, with a trading value of THB 280.43 million.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) expresses a negative view on the refinery sector following the recent resolution by the Energy Policy Administration Committee to reduce the ex-refinery price for diesel by THB 4.00 per litre, effective from 16 September to 31 October 2026. This is an increase from the previous reduction of THB 2.40 per litre applied to B0, B7, and B20 diesel products at the refinery level.
The brokerage cites heightened policy risk as a key concern, emphasizing that the new measure is likely to significantly impact the earnings and cash flows of refinery stocks. Based on production volumes as of June 2026, BCP is expected to see the largest negative effect, followed by TOP, PTTGC, IRPC, and SPRC, respectively.
Looking ahead to 3Q26, DAOL anticipates weaker quarter-on-quarter profits for the refinery sector, attributing this to a downward trend in crack spreads and crude oil prices, as well as the mandated ex-refinery price adjustment.
The investment weighting for the energy sector remains ‘Market Weight,’ with an avoidance stance recommended for refinery stocks. Specific recommendations include ‘Hold’ ratings for TOP with a target price of THB 70 and SPRC with a target of THB 12, and a ‘Buy’ recommendation for BCP with a target of THB 50, given their already full valuations and signs of a market slowdown.
Conversely, DAOL maintains a positive view on PTTEP, with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of THB 180 per share, reflecting expectations of higher average selling prices for liquid products in the third quarter of 2026.
Following the report, Krungsri Securities (KSS) reiterates its view that the government will continue to intervene during periods when refining margins are above normal, and this intervention will ease once spreads return to normal levels. While the diesel subsidy request limits upside risk during periods when petroleum spreads are above normal, Krungsri maintains its view that this does not change the long-term picture: the global refining industry remains in a tight supply situation, with refining margins staying above the 10-year average by 5-6 $/bbl in the long run, even after spreads normalize. This allows the refinery group to continue generating cash flow and paying dividends at a high level.
The brokerage firm maintains a BULLISH view on the refinery group, with TOP as its top pick, reiterating its long-term 2026-28 view that the refinery group stands out due to tight supply trends, with limited new production capacity coming online, keeping refining margins above the 10-year average even as spreads normalize to typical levels — enabling continued strong cash flow generation and dividend payouts. Additionally, the CFP project’s COD (commercial operation date) is expected in 3Q28.
