Mr. Kantara Ladawan na Ayutthaya, Executive Director of Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on October 2, 2026, that the short-term outlook for the Thai stock market remains under pressure, following a drop of more than 35 points the preceding period, accompanied by only a slight recovery. Consequently, the benchmark is expected to trade sideway-down, indicating that it is not yet time to accelerate increasing investment weighting.
The analyst set a critical support level for the SET Index at 1,561 points, and if the index can hold above this level, a technical rebound remains possible. Meanwhile, the analyst considered the 1,612 – 1,620 points range as a major resistance level with substantial selling pressure waiting. Looking to the long-term outlook for next year, FSS maintains its target for the Thai benchmark at above 1,700 points, though reaching that level would necessitate major positive catalysts to drive the market.
Regarding external factors, the key issue to monitor is the direction of crude oil prices, which remain sustained at high levels around $102 per barrel. If oil prices continue to rise, it will intensify global inflationary pressures, causing market concerns over interest rate trends and government bond yields that could stay elevated for an extended period.
Mr. Kantara noted that this linkage is a critical factor for investment sentiment, as rising oil prices increase cost and inflationary pressures, potentially leading to higher interest rate trajectories and pushing bond yields up accordingly. Elevated bond yields, in turn, exert pressure on stock market valuations and make index recovery more difficult.
At the same time, rising bond yields in European markets are affecting capital flow directions, the analyst noted, with funds moving from Europe into the United States. This movement has strengthened the U.S. Dollar Index and created pressure on fund flows into emerging markets, including the Thai stock market.
Regarding the monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Kantara remarked that traders have placed only around a 25% probability of a rate hike at the October 2026 meeting, reflecting that investors are leaning toward a rate hold. However, for the December 2026 meeting, the market assesses the probability of a rate hike as high as approximately 80%, making this an issue that investors must monitor closely.
Furthermore, although the Fed has signaled the potential for 2 – 3 additional rate increases, the market remains concerned about policy rates and bond yields persisting at high levels. This environment serves as a primary drag on risk assets and limits stock market recovery potential in the short term.
As for foreign capital flows, slight positive signals have emerged after foreign investors switched to opening long positions in futures following seven consecutive days of short positions. FSS views this as potentially reflecting easing selling pressure or a partial improvement in foreign sentiment toward the Thai market. Nevertheless, ongoing tracking is required to determine whether this will evolve into sustained capital inflows.
On domestic factors, Mr. Kantara reiterated that rainfall and flood conditions must be closely monitored, as they could impact economic activity and investment sentiment. Meanwhile, the Thai baht’s depreciation of approximately 2% over the past month presents a positive factor for export and tourism equities—particularly the tourism sector as its high season has arrived—provided rain and flood conditions subside.
In terms of investment strategy, FSS continues to recommend a “Wait & See” approach, advising investors to pause and await clarity before taking action, particularly regarding oil price movements, bond yields, Fed policy signals, capital flows, and domestic flooding conditions.
For stocks backed by supporting factors, FSS highlights DELTA as attractive due to sector strength and its major index weighting, setting a target price at THB 290. Meanwhile, PTTEP benefits directly from sustained high crude oil prices; FSS sets its target price at THB 166 and views the stock as suitable for selective entry.
As for BBL, despite foreign outflow pressure on banking stocks, it remains one of FSS’s top stock picks for October. Regarding STA, the stock gains support from rising rubber prices alongside sustained high demand and limited supply growth, coupled with favorable technical indicators.
Consequently, FSS continues to emphasize selective stock picking. The top stock picks for October are BBL, DELTA, and STA, while PTTEP remains a beneficiary of elevated oil prices and offers investment entry points.
