Bualuang Securities (BLS) wrote that the prolonged war in the Middle East has kept global oil prices elevated, with the domestic diesel price increasing to THB 42.94 per litre as of October 9, 2026. This rise is pressuring both business costs and the cost of living.
Additionally, flooding in Thailand is further dampening already weak consumer spending, as reflected by the consumer confidence index for September, which fell to 52.1 from 53.2—its first decline in four months. Consequently, businesses are limited in their ability to pass on rising costs to consumers through higher prices.
This aligns with Bualuang’s findings, which indicate that producer costs are rising faster than consumer prices. In September, the producer price index rose by 10.5% year-on-year, compared with headline inflation of 2.82% year-on-year. The resulting gap of 7.68 percentage points is the widest in four years and highlights significant margin pressure, especially for businesses reliant on mass-market purchasing power.
Meanwhile, companies targeting higher-end consumers or selling essential goods and services are expected to be less affected.
In this context, Bualuang recommends focusing on dividend stocks backed by stable earnings that continue to offer attractive returns even in a weaker-than-expected business environment. The selection process started with stocks projected to yield a forward dividend of more than 4% in 2027-2028, with a consistent dividend payout over the past three years and either stable or increasing dividends per share. Stocks subject to sharp earnings downgrades in the past three months were excluded, and priority was given to companies expected to grow earnings in 2027.
The brokerage then conducted a dividend stress test for 2027, evaluating dividend resilience under the assumption of weaker-than-expected performance across various sectors. Assumptions included higher credit costs for banks, lower same-store sales for retailers and malls, flat revenues for hospitals, intensified price competition for telecoms, and lower Brent crude oil prices for the oil and gas sector. For WHA and WHAUP, the impact of delayed land transfers for data centers was considered.
Under these negative scenarios, the stocks expected to provide the highest 2027 dividend yields are SCB (6.9%), TISCO (6.3%), KKP (6.1%), OSP (5.6%), TLI (5.4%), and PTT (5.3%), followed by KTB (5.0%), BBL (4.9%), KBANK (4.8%), and ADVANC (4.7%). These results indicate that these stocks are likely to maintain attractive dividend yields even if business performance and dividend payouts fall short of base-case expectations.
CPN and BDMS stand out for their resilience to earnings downside and historically high dividend yields. CPN is expected to provide a dividend yield of 4.2% in a worst-case scenario and 4.6% in the base case for 2027—both above its 10-year average plus one standard deviation of 2.9%. Its high-end customer base and tourists are supporting tenant sales, with traffic in 3Q26 up 4% year-on-year, and its core profit and revenue for 2027 are forecast to grow by 9.4% and 8.9% year-on-year, respectively.
BDMS is forecast to yield 4.0% in a worst-case scenario and 4.2% in the base case for 2027, above its 10-year average plus one standard deviation of 2.7%, supported by a recovery in both local and international patient numbers. Core profit in 3Q26 is expected to reach a record high, growing 7% year-on-year and 42% quarter-on-quarter.
