Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on October 26, 2025, that the Thai stock market is expected to trade sideways to sideways-down today, weighed by crude oil price volatility and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. However, he estimated that the Thai market’s potential decline may be less severe than that of regional peers, setting a support level at 1,550 – 1,555 points and a resistance level at 1,570 points.
On external factors, crude oil prices, which sharply surged late last week to more than six-month high, showed signs of easing this morning as market concerns moderated regarding potential additional military strikes against Iran by the United States and Israel.Earlier reports had highlighted the possibility of military action following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
Regarding domestic economic data, investors are awaiting Thailand’s trade figures for September 2026, with market consensus expecting exports to expand by approximately 18% year-on-year and imports to grow by around 31%. Although export growth is likely to slow from the previous month, the overall momentum remains intact, particularly benefiting electronics equities geared toward export growth.
In domestic politics, the timeline for an upcoming censure debate remains unresolved and potentially deferred to early November.
Key macro developments this week center on central bank monetary policy decisions, notably Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on October 28 and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on October 27 – 28. Market participants widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates unchanged at 3.75 – 4.00% at this meeting, ahead of a potential rate increase at its December meeting.
Turning to foreign fund flows, Mr. Pobchai noted that foreign investors have returned as net buyers of Thai stocks for three consecutive trading sessions, accumulating net purchases exceeding THB 5 billion. Net buying on Thursday alone surpassed THB 3.5 billion, narrowing month-to-date net foreign sales to approximately THB 7 billion.
While three consecutive days of net buying are not yet sufficient to confirm a structural trend reversal in capital flows, it marks a positive signal that foreign investors are re-engaging with Thai equities. This comes as valuations across several listed companies have reached attractive levels, paired with the Thai exchange offering relative safe-haven characteristics and high dividend yields suitable for capital preservation during periods of elevated global volatility.
Additionally, the upcoming U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, may prompt foreign investors to maintain capital in Thai equities while awaiting U.S. political clarity. If election outcomes place greater legislative constraints on the U.S. administration, market concerns over policies affecting the global economy could ease, creating opportunities for increased foreign capital inflows into the Thai stock market.
Mr. Pobchai added that the greatest market weight should be placed on third-quarter 2026 financial results. This is because expectations regarding the Fed’s rate trajectory have already been largely priced in by traders, while oil prices remain subject to periodic news-driven fluctuations.
On crude oil dynamics, analysts maintain a full-year average Brent crude price baseline of around $90 per barrel, compared to the current year-to-date average of approximately $95 per barrel, necessitating ongoing oversight through year-end.
Regarding 3Q26 corporate earnings, most listed companies are projected to report year-on-year growth due to a low base comparison from the prior year, though results may contract sequentially quarter-on-quarter following relatively strong earnings in 2Q26.
However, if 3Q26 earnings prove less weak than market expectations, they could act as a key catalyst supporting a market rebound or upside momentum. Combined with anticipated sequential earnings improvements in 4Q26 over 3Q26, corporate earnings will serve as a primary anchor for assessing the Thai stock market’s direction for the remainder of the year.
For investment strategy, investors are advised to exercise heightened caution given the expected high volatility in the Thai stock market this week due to both internal and external factors. Strategy should emphasize accumulating fundamental stocks on price pullbacks rather than chasing rallies, while closely tracking corporate earnings reports, foreign capital flow trends, and outcomes from major central bank policy meetings.
