On 28 October 2026, The Siam Cement Public Company Limited (SET: SCC) is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results for 2026. Analysts expect the company’s earnings to recover from the same period last year, projecting net profit in the range of THB 2.8 billion to THB 4.3 billion, reflecting a clearer recovery in the petrochemical segment.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) remains optimistic on SCC’s outlook, expecting continued earnings recovery into 2027, citing a cyclical upswing in the petrochemical industry as global supply tightens. This is attributed to production cuts, delays in new facilities coming online, and accelerated output reductions by various producers, leading to sharply recovering product spreads. An additional driver is the anticipated commissioning of SCC’s ethane cracker project in 2H27, which should lower raw material costs and enhance the company’s profit margins.
The brokerage estimates SCC’s 3Q26 net profit at around THB 3.45 billion, representing a year-on-year surge of 616%, albeit a sequential decline of 70%. This result is aided by an inventory revaluation benefit of about THB 594 million, while the core business has shown signs of recovery, particularly in petrochemicals, where HDPE and PP spreads improved by 16% and 27% year-on-year, respectively.
The cement and building materials segment is expected to remain stable, supported by government infrastructure projects that bolstered sales volume, while higher sales prices offset softer demand from the property sector. For the packaging segment, reduced competition—following lower production rates among Chinese manufacturers—enabled SCC to align sales prices with rising costs and maintain robust margins.
Despite a decline in petrochemical sales volume to approximately 508,000 tons in 3Q26—due to raw material-related shutdowns at Rayong Olefins Co. and Long Son Petrochemicals—the situation is expected to improve as operations at Rayong Olefins are scheduled to resume in 4Q26, which could increase sales volume by around 15% quarter-on-quarter, underlining the segment’s recovery.
Looking to the fourth quarter, Krungsri expects SCC’s normalized profit to recover both sequentially and year-on-year, with the petrochemical segment continuing to lead, as spreads from 4Q26 to present have risen 52–98% year-on-year and 22–37% from the previous quarter, reflecting tighter supply and a cyclical industry rebound. The recovery at Rayong Olefins is also expected to boost sales volumes and overall performance.
The cement business is projected to rebound post-seasonal weakness, supported by cost-structure adjustments, while the packaging business is poised for year-on-year recovery on reduced competition and improved pricing. Dividend income is also anticipated to further enhance overall results.
SCC’s normalized profit for the first nine months of 2026 is seen to account for approximately 82% of Krungsri’s full-year forecast of THB 18.89 billion, up a significant 409% from the previous year. With Q3 results likely meeting expectations, the brokerage sees potential for a 9–10% earnings estimate upgrade for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected recovery momentum.
For 2027, Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on SCC with a target price of THB 315 per share, positioning the stock as a top pick among its peers, with petrochemicals as the main earnings driver. The upcoming commissioning of the ethane cracker project in 2H27 is expected to reduce raw material costs, enhance production efficiency, and improve long-term profitability.
SCC also stands out for its planned capacity expansion at LSP, which should support an average capacity growth of 10% annually between 2026 and 2028, alongside opportunities to grow its market share in Vietnam and increase the proportion of high value-added products. The cement business is expected to benefit from the development of low-carbon cement products, while the packaging segment continues to gain from reduced competition with Chinese producers.
With tailwinds from the petrochemical cycle recovery, increased production capacity, cost savings from the ethane project, and strategic business restructuring, Krungsri projects SCC’s normalized profit to average annual growth as high as 110% between 2026 and 2028, reinforcing its status as a leading stock in the construction materials and petrochemical sectors.
