Phillip Securities (Thailand) projects that Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited (SET: TFG) will report a net profit of THB 1.8 billion for the third quarter of 2026, representing an increase of 22.08% quarter-on-quarter and 5.63% year-on-year. This marks a recovery from the lowest point seen in the second quarter.
The main drivers behind this improvement are an expected gross profit margin rebound to approximately 20%, following higher domestic meat prices, as well as lower cost trends for major raw materials such as corn.
Revenue in 3Q26 is forecasted at around THB 18.9 billion, reflecting both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year growth across all business segments. In retail, the number of branches expanded to 790 at the end of the third quarter, targeting 875 branches by year-end. The average sales per branch rose to about THB 140,000 per day, and same-store sales growth turned positive at 1%.
In the swine business, the average domestic price improved to THB 67 per kilogram, and the market continued to benefit from consistently high sales volumes in Vietnam. The chicken business also saw increased sales volumes, with exports of cooked chicken to key markets such as Japan and the EU rising more than 30% quarter-on-quarter. Domestic chicken prices recovered, reaching THB 35–36 per kilogram.
Phillip maintains its 2026 net profit forecast for TFG at THB 6.9 billion. Net profit for the first nine months of 2026 accounts for 76% of the full-year estimate. The firm gives a ‘Buy’ rating on TFG and upgrades the target price to a 2027-based valuation of THB 12.50 per share—representing a potential upside of 31% compared to the current price of THB 9.55.
The outlook for the fourth quarter remains positive, as swine and chicken prices are expected to continue on an upward trend. Furthermore, the corn harvesting season and the commencement of corn imports from the United States are anticipated to help keep input costs at a low level.
