Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote that Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: MOSHI) has shown signs of improvement following a period of short-term disruption caused by flooding at the end of September, which forced the temporary closure of 7-15 branches and led to reduced consumer spending.
As a result, same-store sales growth in September was flat YoY, stabilizing from 5-6% YoY growth seen in July and August. However, spending momentum has begun to recover in October, with SSSG turning positive at 1-2% YoY in the first two weeks, and showing further improvement towards the end of the month.
The company has continued to launch new products, most notably the Hello Kitty Black and White collection, which has received positive feedback. As the business enters the year-end high season, it is expected that SSSG will return to its normal positive trend.
In November, MOSHI will also trial two new large-format store concepts at Seacon Srinakarin and Samyan Mitrtown, featuring enhanced décor and amenities such as photo corners and sticker booths, with floor space over 300 square meters compared to the standard 150 square meters. Previous experience with this format, branded as Dreamland at Central Pinklao, has generated strong customer traffic and is expected to deliver high investment returns with a faster payback period than the typical 2-3 years.
For 3Q26, Krungsri estimates MOSHI’s net profit at THB 153 million, up 12% YoY but down 5% QoQ, on revenue of THB 988 million, representing a 17% YoY increase and a 3% QoQ gain. The forecast assumes SSSG of 3% YoY and contributions from 40 new branches opened during 4Q25-3Q26, with gross margin steady at 55.7% despite the stronger yuan, and SG&A/Sales rising 70 basis points YoY to 34.8% with increased store openings and marketing expenditures.
Looking ahead, full-year 2026 profit is forecast to rise 17% YoY, with a three-year (2025-2028) CAGR of 17% driven by annual SSSG of 3%, an expanding customer base, and an average of 35 new branch openings per year—targeting a network of 300 branches by 2028. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to reach its peak for the year, supported by robust revenue growth.
According to the brokerage, while margin pressures persist from currency fluctuations and higher product and logistics costs, the company’s pricing power and introduction of new products are helping to offset these impacts.
Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation with a target price of THB 54.00 per share, based on a DCF valuation (WACC 8.3%, terminal growth 1.0%), citing MOSHI’s superior growth outlook compared to peers and clear strategy for expansion.
The shares are currently trading at 15x and 13x forward PER for 2026 and 2027, respectively—near sector averages, but with stronger anticipated growth. Meanwhile, the brokerage notes a short-term risk related to possible exclusion from the SET100 Index, which is viewed as a buying opportunity.
