Yuanta Securities (Thailand) expects CK Power Public Company Limited (SET: CKP) to post normalized profit of THB 772 million in 3Q26, a 267% increase quarter-on-quarter, marking the highest level for the year. This growth is driven by the high season of hydropower plants in Laos and the resumption of normal operations at the BIC gas-fired power plant following maintenance in the previous quarter.
However, on a year-on-year basis, the profit is anticipated to decline by 37%, despite a 43% QoQ and 1% YoY increase in electricity sales volume at Xayaburi Power Company Limited (XPCL) to 2,584 GWh, attributed to the absence of the super El Niño impact. Meanwhile, the company is pressured by a decline in electricity sales at Nam Ngum 2 hydroelectric power plant (NN2) to 499 GWh, a 51% decrease YoY due to water conservation during the dry season, and rising natural gas costs expected at THB 402/MMBtu, up 11% QoQ and 35% YoY.
Should 3Q26 normalized profit meet expectations, it will account for 62% of the brokerage’s full-year estimate. Consequently, 2026-27 normalized profit forecasts have been lowered by 14% and 5% to THB 1,526 million (-34% YoY) and THB 1,428 million (-6% YoY), respectively. This adjustment reflects reduced revenue contributions from NN2 due to water reserve management in anticipation of potential super El Niño effects.
Looking ahead, normalized profit for 4Q26 is expected in the range of THB 300-400 million, representing declines in both QoQ and YoY. While water releases from the upstream Nam Ngum 3 may support NN2’s reservoir, profits remain pressured by seasonal factors affecting Laos hydropower plants, expected declines in electricity sales at NN2 and XPCL as super El Niño impacts take hold (notably in November-December), and persistently high natural gas costs due to ongoing Middle East conflict, weighing on the BIC plant’s gross margin.
As a result, Yuanta maintains its ‘Trading’ recommendation for CKP, with a target price adjusting downward to THB 2.58 per share for end-2026, as the short- to medium-term share price is likely to face pressure from the significant impact of super El Niño expected during 4Q26-1Q27.
The brokerage added that further growth prospects under the PDP2026 plan remain limited, as the draft plan focuses on expanding solar and wind capacity, while CKP specializes in hydropower. The company’s growth targets in line with PDP2026 are expected to be announced after more clarity emerges in November 2026.
