Krungsri Securities (KSS) projects Osotspa Public Company Limited (SET: OSP) will report a 3Q26 net profit of THB 900 million, up 29% year-on-year but down 18% quarter-on-quarter, due to improved profit margins. Excluding a special gain of THB 60 million from selling equipment at the Hua Mak site before leasing it to CPAXT, normalized profit is expected at THB 840 million, representing a 20% year-on-year growth but a 24% decrease quarter-on-quarter.
This remains a solid result, according to the analyst, even with a seasonal quarter-on-quarter dip, thanks to higher margins. The gross margin is projected to reach 40.3%, rising from 38.5% in 3Q25, though lower than 42.8% in 2Q26, as the company saw the full impact of higher gas and packaging costs from ongoing conflicts. However, effective cost control due to centralized production helped mitigate these effects.
SG&A/Sales is anticipated at 23.6%, lower than 3Q25 and higher than 2Q26, reflecting strategic cuts in marketing and other expenses. Sales are forecast at THB 5.7 billion (+2% year-on-year, -7% quarter-on-quarter), supported by growth in the Personal Care and Functional Drinks segments, while domestic energy drink sales are seen rising slightly despite late-quarter logistics disruptions from flooding.
Revenue from international drinks business is expected to decline marginally due to stricter import regulations in Myanmar and impacts from changes in accounting standards. Excluding these effects, international revenue is projected to grow well—up 20-30%—in Myanmar, Laos, and Indonesia.
Krungsri has raised its 2026-27 profit estimates for OSP by 9% on average, citing better-than-expected margins stemming from both higher gross profit and lower SG&A/Sales. For 2026, normalized profit is now forecast at THB 3.9 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year.
Looking ahead to 4Q26, profits are projected to increase slightly both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, thanks to seasonal revenue growth and continued improvements in production efficiency and the premium product portfolio, despite rising energy costs.
As a result, Krungsri maintains a ‘Neutral’ rating for OSP and has raised the 2027 target price to THB 20.30 (previously THB 18.90), based on a 15x PER. As a 10% share price rally during the past two weeks already reflects a strong 3Q26 earnings outlook, the brokerage sees limited upside from current levels, with a risk of OSP being removed from the SET50 Index in the upcoming December review.
