Mr. Suwat Wattanapornprom, Director of the Research Division, Investment Strategy, at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in “Kaohoon” program on October 30, 2026, that the outlook for the Thai stock market continues to face volatility from external factors, particularly oil prices remaining at elevated levels.
Unsettled geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, alongside the upcoming U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, serve as key developments being monitored by investors to gauge market direction moving forward.
Global equities also face pressure from declines in U.S. technology stocks following third-quarter earnings. While major technology companies continue to report strong AI-related revenue growth, hyperscalers have not significantly raised capital expenditure plans beyond earlier projections.
Although AI investment is expected to increase in 2027, the lack of an acceleration beyond initial expectations has prompted investors to reassess high valuations. Combined with broader uncertainties, this has encouraged some investors to shift into bonds for short-term risk management.
Krungsri sees the SET Index attempting to stabilize after a sustained decline. Thailand’s equity risk premium has widened to approximately 4.4%, exceeding its long-term average plus one standard deviation, suggesting increasingly attractive valuations that could help limit downside.
However, clear fundamental and technical recovery catalysts remain absent. KSS expects consolidation, and setting a support level at around 1,530 – 1,532 points, a level capable of helping cushion short-term downside.
Mr. Suwat said selling pressure on DELTA reflects the reassessment of AI investment expectations after elevated valuations had priced in continuously accelerating spending. Krungsri maintains its THB 320 target price, subject to future reviews of hyperscaler investment assumptions, and advises investors to wait for expectations to moderate before entering.
Energy, refinery and petrochemical shares are attracting renewed interest following sharp declines linked to concerns over government energy price restructuring.
KSS estimates the measures could reduce net refining margins by approximately $0.75 per barrel, affecting sector earnings by 3% – 16%. Previous share price declines likely reflect part of that impact.
Discussions over a refining margin cap of approximately THB 2.40 per liter, equivalent to $11 – $12 per barrel, imply a level still above the 10-year historical average. Mr. Suwat said this suggests the restructuring has not severely disrupted market mechanisms.
Nevertheless, uncertainty over oil prices and international conflicts could delay recovery in refinery and petrochemical stocks. KSS recommends gradual accumulation during share price weakness.
Regarding the planned SCC-PTTGC petrochemical joint venture, Mr. Suwat said integration could improve cost efficiency—particularly olefins feedstock costs—and competitiveness. Earnings benefits, however, depend primarily on a recovery in the global petrochemical cycle, more balanced supply and demand, and appropriate product spreads.
For volatile conditions, Krungsri recommends rotating toward defensive stocks with stable cash flows and company-specific catalysts, particularly businesses with strong 3Q26 earnings growth prospects.
The securities firm’s three highlighted picks are AWC, supported by tourism recovery; BDMS, offering stable cash flows and benefiting from the third-quarter peak season for medical services; and GULF, supported by stable cash flows and declining bond yields that improve utilities’ investment appeal.
In property, government home loan guarantee support could provide some stimulus, but purchasing power and credit access remain critical considerations. Suwat advised cautious speculation around policy measures and a focus on strong fundamentals for longer-term investment, naming AP as an attractive sector choice.
