Asia Plus Securities expects the Thai equity market to remain volatile amid concerns over the inflation outlook and weaker-than-expected 3Q26 earnings from several major listed companies. The market anticipates Thailand’s headline inflation to rise 3.4% year-on-year in October, potentially influencing expectations for the future direction of interest rates, while continued volatility in global financial markets is also weighing on investment sentiment.
Against this backdrop, the brokerage recommends that investors adopt a more cautious stance by maintaining cash holdings equivalent to approximately 20–30% of their portfolios and applying a selective buying strategy.
Asia Plus noted that average WTI crude oil prices reached approximately $96.9 per barrel in October, representing a 61% increase from the same period last year—contributing to expectations for a 3.4% rise in headline inflation, compared with 2.8% in September. Meanwhile, core inflation is projected at 1.6%, indicating that price pressures remain largely concentrated in energy and food costs rather than reflecting stronger domestic demand.
Another source of market uncertainty stems from 3Q26 earnings among non-financial listed companies, several of which have reported results below market expectations. SCC recorded earnings 35% below estimates, primarily due to pressure on its petrochemical business.
DELTA also reported earnings 12% below expectations following inventory provisions, although its profit continued to increase both QoQ and YoY. Meanwhile, PTTEP posted earnings 21% below estimates, reflecting asset impairment charges and losses from oil price hedging activities. These results have encouraged investors to take a more cautious approach ahead of further corporate earnings announcements, while increasing the possibility of downward revisions to companies’ profit forecasts.
Internationally, concerns surrounding AI investments are increasingly shifting towards companies’ ability to generate free cash flow rather than earnings growth alone. Major technology companies have accelerated spending on AI infrastructure, with capital expenditure expanding faster than operating cash flow, prompting investors to rotate towards lower-risk assets and defensive equities. Meanwhile, global oil prices have shown signs of weakening amid expectations that tensions in the Middle East could ease.
For November, Asia Plus recommends a selective investment strategy centred on three themes. Under the Anti-Commodity theme, the brokerage selects BGRIM and THAI, which could benefit from lower energy costs. BGRIM may see improved margins if natural gas prices decline faster than electricity selling prices, while THAI could gain from easing jet fuel expenses.
For the Anti-Yield theme, Asia Plus favours SAWAD, which could benefit from lower bond yields and funding costs, potentially supporting its net interest spread.
Under the Defensive theme, the brokerage selects BH and CPN, citing their relatively stable demand and recurring revenue streams. BH is supported by demand for specialized medical services, while CPN benefits from rental income generated by its property business.
Asia Plus recommends gradually accumulating selected stocks when their market prices offer an appropriate discount to fundamental value. Investors should also monitor actual earnings performance and company-specific growth drivers, while prioritizing portfolio risk management and maintaining sufficient liquidity amid continued market uncertainty.
