Kaohoon Morning Brief – 4 March 2022

1) Powell says he expects 25bp hike in March

The Federal Reserve Chair affirmed the market speculation by saying that the central bank will raise rates and shrink the balance sheet over 2022.

“My current thinking is recommending a 25 bp hike in March. March hike to begin a series of rate hikes,” said Jerome Powell.

 

2) JPMorgan expects Russia’s economy to fall 35% amid sanctions

JPMorgan said that the economic sanctions on Russia could result in a 35% decline in the Russian economy as the Ukraine invasion has entered into the second week. The western countries are slapping more sanctions on Moscow. Germany has suspended its gas project with Russia, while major shipping lines halt their service to and from Russia, except for food and medical supplies. Russian banks are also barred from SWIFT as well.

 

3) EU is ready for Russia retaliation on energy

Kadri Simson, the EU’s commissioner for energy, said that the EU is ready for retaliation from Russia that might come into a form of partial or full disruption of natural gas after the bloc imposed sanctions on Russia.

Russia accounts for more than 40% of the EU’s natural gas stock in 2020.

 

4) S&P cuts Russian credit score to CCC-

S&P Global Ratings cuts Russian credit score for the second time in a week, citing  sanctions render a large part of Russia’s reserves inaccessible undermining the central bank’s ability to act as lender of last resort. The cut is by eight levels to CCC-, just two steps above a default ranking.