Economists Expect Tokyo Core CPI to Double BOJ’s Target in January

The leading indicator of Japan’s consumer prices is likely to increase in January by more than twice of the central bank’s target, according to a Reuters poll.

Japan’s inflation data got unusual attention among market expectations about a change in the Bank of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy.


According to the median estimate of 19 economists, the core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo should increase 4.2% in January, marking the eighth consecutive month of price acceleration and the fastest YoY increase since April 1982.

Shinichiro Kobayashi, principal economist at Mitsubishi UFJ, stated that inflation will stay elevated in January, as the effect from the stimulus package, which results in lower energy prices but will not fully kick-in until February.


Tokyo’s core CPI has been published three to four weeks ahead of the nationwide inflation data, representing the drop of 3.9% in December.

Previously, in December, CPI nationwide data showed a 4.0% increase in core inflation, including energy items but not volatile fresh food.

The government will publish preliminary Tokyo CPI data on January 27 at 8:30 a.m.