IEA Lowers 2024 Oil Demand Growth Projection amid Slowing Demand from OECD Countries

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its forecast for the growth of oil demand in 2024, further increasing the gap between the IEA and OPEC in terms of their views on global oil demand for this year.

The energy watchdog based in Paris has trimmed its growth forecast for this year by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1 million bpd, attributing mainly to weak demand in developed OECD countries.

On the other hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reaffirmed on Tuesday its anticipation that global oil demand will increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024.

The substantial gap between the two forecasts is partially due to differing opinions on the pace of the global shift towards cleaner energy sources.

In its monthly oil report, the IEA noted that the reduced 2024 oil demand forecast was a result of poor industrial activity and lower gasoil consumption due to a mild winter, particularly affecting Europe where a decreasing number of diesel cars was already impacting consumption.

As per the IEA, “Combined with weak diesel deliveries in the United States at the start of the year, this was enough to tip OECD oil demand in the first quarter back into contraction.”

The IEA’s 2025 oil growth forecast of 1.2 million bpd, slightly higher than its prior estimate, now slightly surpasses its projection for this year. OPEC has put forward an oil demand growth estimate of 1.85 million bpd for the upcoming year.


Meanwhile, investors are assessing the US oil inventory data published on Wednesday.

According to industry sources referencing American Petroleum Institute data, US crude oil inventories dropped by 3.10 million barrels in the week ending on May 10. Additionally, gasoline inventories declined by 1.26 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 673,000 barrels.