The Office of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) prepares to present the new round of the Fuel Adjustment Tariff (Ft) guidelines to the ERC committee meeting on March 25, before making an official announcement.
The market initially estimates the new electricity rate at approximately 3.95 baht per unit, an increase from the current rate of 3.88 baht per unit, about 7 satang higher. This is a case where some measures are applied to help stabilize electricity prices.
The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) revealed that the unrest in the Middle East has caused spot market Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) prices to rise to around 25 US dollars per million BTU, causing Thailand’s electricity production costs to trend higher and affecting the calculation of the Fuel Adjustment Tariff (Ft) for the period May–August 2026.
The ERC has calculated three scenarios for electricity tariffs as follows:
Scenario 1: If no measures are implemented and the electricity rate reflects the total fuel cost, including the accumulated financial obligation (AF) of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) of 36 billion baht borne on behalf of the public, the tariff will increase to 4.59 baht per unit.
Scenario 2: If the outstanding AF debt of 36 billion baht by EGAT remains unpaid, the tariff will be 4.08 baht per unit.
Scenario 3: If the excess investment funds of the three electricity utilities, totaling about 9.4 billion baht, are used to support the electricity rate and the AF debt of EGAT remains unpaid, the tariff will be about 3.95 baht per unit.
The increase in LNG prices from around 12 to 25 US dollars per million BTU has led to the Ft rate rising by about 58 satang per unit, while the Thai baht weakened to its lowest point in nine months at 32.93 baht per US dollar on March 20.
Meanwhile, the government is likely to consider measures to stabilize electricity tariffs to avoid impacting the cost of living for the public.
