Daily Strategy: AWS Expects Foreign Inflow to Continue Buoying Thai Market with Baht Appreciation

Major stock markets in Asia traded in a mixed session on Monday as investors continued to monitor the situation at the Ukrainian border after both Kyiv and Moscow exchanged accusations of the other in breaking the ceasefire violation.

As of 10:10 local time in Thailand on February 21, 2022, Nikkei dropped 0.72%, SSEC fell 0.44%, Hang Seng Index slipped 0.66%, ASX 200 rose 0.11%, IDX Composite gained 0.22%.

Thailand’s SET Index opened at 1,712.07 points, decreased 1.13 points or 0.07%.

Kyiv accused pro-Russia separatists of attacking a village near the border, while Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine said that two civilians were killed in shelling by Ukrainian forces late Sunday.

Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) expected the SET this week ( 21-25 Feb 2022) to move in a frame of 1,695-1,725 points. SET last week closed at 1,713.2 points, an increase of 14 points (+0.82%) with average daily Bt93.801bn, down 7%WoW. Last Friday foreigners returned to net selling status for the first time after continuous net buying in Feb. for totaling Bt54.8bn and bringing the cumulative turnover in 2022YTD to Bt69bn. However, AWS expected the SET to have a positive momentum for fund flows continually. For the appreciation of the Baht, AWS expected the baht to appreciate at the level of Bt31 per USD and still have to closely monitor the situation in Ukraine. Issues to be followed this week, 21 Feb, include that the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reports GDP numbers during 4Q21 and opinions on the Thai GDP outlook. The market consensus expects GDP in 4Q21 to grow 0.8%YoY, causing both 2021, growing 1.2%YoY. For 25 Feb, the issue to be followed is the report on the PCE and Core PCE Price Index in the U.S. which are inflation indexes that the Fed has weighted in determining the direction of monetary policy, including interesting foreign issues such as China’s LPR loan rate in Feb (Feb 21), Japan’s Feb PMI and the Eurozone (Feb 21) and the Inflation in the month of the Eurozone (23 Feb).