Thai Baht Leads Losses in EM, Consensus Sees Stronger Performance in 2H22

The Thai baht continued to slump on Tuesday against the dollar as the Thai central bank remained intact on not holding an extra meeting this month to review its monetary policy before the actual date scheduled in August.

Meanwhile, the greenback is surging on the back of Federal Reserve’s hawkish moves in raising interest rates to tame a 40-year high inflation.

In the early morning of July 19, 2022, Thai baht led losses among Asian currencies, falling 0.14% to THB36.695 against the dollar. However, the Japanese yen is still leading emerging markets in plummeting this year against the U.S. dollar with a drop of 16.74%. Thailand is ranked fourth behind Korean won, Philippines peso and Japanese yen.

According to the consensus in Refinitiv, economists and analysts expected the baht to grow stronger in the second half of 2022 and close the year at THB34.40. The baht should reach THB33.55 by mid 2023.

Amid rising inflation in the Kingdom of Thailand, analysts are expecting a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in August and another quarter point in the fourth quarter to bring its policy rate to 1% by year’s end.