Kaohoon Morning Brief – 2 September 2022

1) FSS says little to no development on bearish sentiment as investors eye US job reports

Finansia Syrus Securities expected the SET to move sideways within 1,610-1,630 points after retreating sharply yesterday. The bearish sentiment does not increase much. Investors are waiting for one crucial economic factor tonight, i.e., the U.S. non-farm payrolls for August. It reflects the economic outlook and signals if it will slow down quickly or not. Other than that, the market would wait for the U.S. CPI for August on September 13. If it remains high, it will put continued pressure on risk assets due to a higher prospect that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 0.75%. Currently, the probability stands at 70%. However, FSS maintained that the SET will not retreat as much as in the West, helped by the economic uptrend, in line with the full reopening. Domestic and value stocks with historically lower PER would outperform the market. If the SET retreats to 1,580-1,600 (+/-), it is an opportunity to accumulate more bets.


2) Nvidia says US allows development of A.I. chips in China

Nvidia on Thursday stated that the U.S. government will allow the company to continue developing its H100 artificial intelligence chip in China, which is a positive factor for the company after it warned the market on Wednesday that the Biden Administration had issued new export restrictions to ban sales to China and Russia, which could hamper its operations and sales revenue.


3) US job growth in August likely slowdown, but remains strong

The US job growth in August is likely to slow down from a higher level in July, but will remain quite strong. Economists expect 318,000 jobs added in August, and that the unemployment rate would be held steady at 3.5%, while average hourly wages are expected to rise 0.4% or 5.3% on an annualized basis, according to Dow Jones.