Kaohoon Morning Brief – 4 October 2022

1) FSS expected technical rebound for SET Index as market enters oversold territory

Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) stated that it expected the SET to recover to test the 1,580 level (+/-) after plummeting by 6.7% from its peak in September. Also, the RSI enters its oversold territory. The sentiment is more relaxed after U.S. bond yields decreased after the market trimmed its forecast for the Fed’s policy rates in early 2023. It made short-term funds flow back into risk assets. On the local front, domestic factors extended their recovery. The floods do not pose a grave concern. However, investors should monitor to see if they will escalate. FSS maintained its bullish view of domestic and reopening plays, including tourism, food, commerce, and banks. They benefit from the rising economy. FSS recommended investors hold them for mid-to-long-term investments after having accumulated more on weakness.


2) Bank of Thailand says economic recovery is likely intact

Thailand’s central bank’s chief said that economic recovery is likely intact and inflation should ease next year, expecting economic growth to expand 3.3% this year and 3.8% next year.

The central bank forecast headline inflation of 6.3% for this year and 2.6% next year, while the target range for the Thai central bank is 1% to 3%.

As a key supporter for the economic recovery, Thailand expects to welcome 9.5 million foreign tourist arrivals this year and 21 million next year.


3) Credit Suisse’s shares close slightly lower on financial health concerns

The share price of Credit Suisse settled 1% lower despite falling more than 12% in an early session on Monday in concerns of the Swiss bank’s financial health.

The five-year credit default swaps (CDS) of Credit Suisse rose 6 basis points to close at 248.76bps on last Friday, the highest level in 13 years on reports that the bank is looking to raise capital which raised concerns on the financial health of the company.


4) North Korea fires first missile over Japan since 2017

On Tuesday, Reuters reported that North Korea had launched a ballistic missile over Japan for the first time in five years, triggering a warning for residents to seek shelter and the temporary stoppage of rail operations in northern Japan.

The Japanese government notified citizens to take cover after the missile appeared to have flown over and past its territory before crashing into the Pacific Ocean.

It was the first time since 2017 that a North Korean missile flew over Japan.