TOP Gains 3% as Investors Accumulate Shares before Dividend Payout and Business Recovery

The share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) rose THB2.00 or 3.77% to THB55.00 as of 15:07 local time in BKK on Monday. The highest price was THB55.25 and the lowest was THB54.25 per share, with a total trading value of 701,423.49 baht.

The share price of TOP increased after the company announced it would pay a dividend from its earned surplus at a rate of THB2 per share. The ex-dividend (XD) date will be on November 10, 2022, and the dividend payment date will be on November 25, 2022.

DAOL (Thailand) Public Company Limited (DAOL) said on the research on October 31, 2022, that TOP will report the market GRM that is better from the previous quarter in the quarter 4Q22, supported by demand for a strong transformation from gas-to-oil in the winter season. That will provide the highest support for gasoil crack, which reached 42.7 dollars per barrel, compared to September at 33.9 dollars per barrel. In addition, the market GRM was boosted by the crude premium that should have passed its peak of the year.

Meanwhile, estimated profit in 2022 was at 4.29 million baht and 1.63 million baht in 2023. It is expected that the profit will increase by 241% compared to the same period in 2022 due to 1) rising market GRM, 2) improved refining run rate, 3) stock gain and 4) profit from the sales of GPSC shares. However, the analyst expected profit to decline in 2023 by 62% due to 1) decreased crack spread and 2) stock loss. 

As a result, DAOH  rated TOP with a “BUY” recommendation, the target price in 2023 was at 66.00 baht, based on a PBV target of 0.85x. The share price reflected a negative impact from weakened crack spreads, while seeing an opportunity for accumulation prior to market GRM recovery demand from gas-to-oil transformation during the winter season and the decline in crude premium.