Maybank Expects Thai Retail Sector’s Strong Performance to Continue in 4Q Thanks to Festive Season

As the festive season approaches and more travel for both Thais and foreign tourists is anticipated, Maybank Securities (Thailand) (MST) forecasts 4Q22 earnings of retail companies, including CPALL, MAKRO, BJC, CRC, HMPRO, and GLOBAL, to grow QoQ and YoY.

Maybank maintains its positive view on Thailand’s retail sector following the same-store sales growth or SSSG of almost all companies in the sector in October and November. Consumer staples, in particular, benefited from a recovery in consumption and tourism.

CPALL is the Top Pick stock in the retail sector as Maybank sees the company will benefit from increased consumption as a market leader in convenience store business (7-Eleven), wholesale business (Makro) and retail business (Lotus).

Maybank anticipates Thailand’s retail sector SSSG to stay robust in December. This is due to increased consumption during the festive season, more travel for both Thais and international tourists, and the World Cup, which encourages spending. As a result, SSSG in 4Q22 for consumer staples including 7-Eleven, Makro, and Lotus should grow year on year. However, due to the high base last year, consumer discretionary companies such as HomePro, Global, and DoHome may see YoY declines.