Maybank Securities (Thailand) remains positive on Thailand’s tourism sector in the second half of 2026, viewing recent share-price weakness as an opportunity to gradually accumulate stocks ahead of the high season and stronger earnings growth in 2027. The firm highlighted AWC and AOT as its top picks.
Despite geopolitical tensions and concerns over slowing Chinese tourist arrivals, the brokerage sees support from recovering long-haul markets, rising average daily room rates (ADR), and a rebound in meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions (MICE) spending, led by China. It expects resilient demand to offset new hotel supply, while valuations remain attractive relative to projected earnings growth.
Maybank forecasts combined tourism-sector profit of THB 9.1 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 23% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter. Excluding AOT, hotel-sector profit is expected to grow 10% YoY, supported by revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth of 7 – 25%, higher food-business revenue and lower interest expenses.
Hotel earnings should continue growing YoY in the fourth quarter as RevPAR maintains its upward momentum, the analyst noted.
AOT is also expected to report further YoY earnings growth in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, covering October – December 2026. An increase in the departing passenger service charge (PSC), effective June 20, should help offset weaker passenger numbers caused by the Middle East conflict.
According to the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT), airlines submitted applications for 405,216 flights to Thailand during the winter 2026 schedule, up 9% YoY. This follows 11% growth in the winter 2025 schedule, with the latest increase driven by higher frequencies on existing routes.
Maybank separately expects flights operated by European airlines to increase 20% YoY during the winter season. Higher-spending tourists should consequently support strong hotel RevPAR growth from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027.
Among hotel stocks, Maybank prefers AWC over ERW and MINT, citing stronger earnings-per-share growth prospects for both the second half of 2026 and 2027. AWC’s sizable land bank provides scope to accelerate hotel expansion. Its debt ratios are also expected to remain relatively low compared with peers, supported by potential asset recycling through a REIT transaction in the fourth quarter of 2026.
For AOT, Maybank projects an earnings compound annual growth rate of 25% over 2026 – 2029. Additional upside could come from non-aeronautical revenue, including the potential return of duty-free shopping for arriving passengers and the Airport City project.
A prolonged Middle East conflict remains a key downside risk, potentially weighing on travel demand and hotel operating costs.
