Kaohoon Morning Brief – 4 July 2023

1) FSS expects sentiment in Thai market to improve after clarity on political issues

Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move in a sideways to sideways-up trend with a resistance level of 1,520 points. The analyst expected the market’s sentiment to improve after the selection of the chairman of the parliament. Meanwhile, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI continued to slow down to the lowest level in three years.


2) CHina bans exports of crucial component for producing chips

The intensity between China and the U.S. increased after Beijing imposed restrictions on exports of gallium and germanium, two essential metals for the production of semiconductor, telecom and EV industries from August 1 onward.

Along with two metals, China will also ban their chemical compounds as well, saying that the restrictions were meant to protect Chinese national security.

China produces around 98% of the world’s gallium and around 70% of germanium.


3) Standard Chartered expects 25bps rate hike by the Fed in July

Standard Chartered expected to see a 25bps interest rate hike rather than a hold from the Federal Reserve in July’s meeting.

The firm stated that it still sees the US economy slowing enough to lead to a pause, but later than it previously expected.

Standard Chartered noted that there is a chance of disinflation without recession, but the Fed appears very reluctant to bet on this.