Market Roundup 13 July 2023


1) Thai stock market overview

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,494.02 points, increased 2.88 points or 0.19% with a trading value of 40 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market moved narrowly as the banking and energy sector helped support the market. Meanwhile, stock markets in Asia edged higher in response to Wall Street after the report of inflation slowing down.


2) Thai consumer confidence hit 40-month high in June

Consumer Confidence in Thailand reached a 40-month high of 56.70 in June, up from 55.50 in May, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported on Thursday, thanks to the influx of foreign tourists and a slightly weakening baht.

The reading in June was the highest it has been since March 2020, marking the thirteenth consecutive month of increase.

The index was buoyed by a combination of factors, including rising international tourist arrivals, higher prices for agricultural products, steady domestic retail oil prices, and a modest depreciation of the baht.

The private poll warned, however, that there remains pressure from rising costs of living, uncertainty over the formation of a new government, the exports sector, and a global economic downturn.


3) China’s trade data in June misses expectations badly as exports and imports shrink further

China’s exports in June fell 12.4% from a year ago, while imports contracted 6.8% as the world’s second largest economy continued to struggle in post-pandemic recovery and global weak demand.

The economic data released by the Statistic Bureau on Thursday was worse than the market had expected. According to economists consensus in a Reuters poll, exports are expected to shrink 9.5% and exports should fall 4.0%.

The drop in exports was the lowest since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic more than three years ago.

The Chinese government has set its growth target this year at 5%.


4) US weaker-than-expected June inflation data reduces Fed rate rise odds in 2H

The chance that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again following its next meeting on July 26 is now lower as the U.S. consumer price report for June came in lower than expected.

There is still a 95% chance, according to the CME FedWatch tool, that the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark fed funds rates by a quarter point, to 5.25%-5.50%, on July 26. But after that, things become more uncertain.

The possibility that the Fed would raise rates by another quarter point at its September meeting (it skips August) has dropped to 13.3% from 22.3% on Tuesday and 18.1% a week ago. The odds that fed funds will be a half point higher by the end of the Fed’s Nov. 1 meeting are 26.5%, down from 31.6% one week ago.

Meanwhile, odds that rates will be a half point higher than today’s 5.00%-5.25% by the time of the Fed’s last policy meeting of the year on December 13 have dropped to 20.8% from 32.4% on Tuesday and 28% a week ago.