Kaohoon Morning Brief – 17 July 2023

1) KSS expects lower oil prices and political uncertainties to cause fluctuation

Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move within the 1,510-1,530 range, expecting the market to get a boost from the positive sentiment of the Fed’s slowing down its policy rate hike as inflation showed signs of trending downward. The analyst also expected stocks with specific catalysts to boost the market as well, such as those with strong 2Q23 earnings outlook and those benefiting from political trends. Still, lower oil prices and uncertainties could cause the market to fluctuate.


2) China’s 2Q23 GDP grows 6.3%, but misses expectations

China’s economic growth in the second quarter missed expectations, while the unemployment rate among young people hit a new record in June as the country is struggling with the property sector and exports plunged over weak global demand.

Growth of the world’s second largest economy in the second quarter of 2023 came in at 6.3% from a year prior, missing expectations of economists polled by Reuters for a 7.3% growth. An expansion in the second quarter rose 0.8% from the first quarter, slower than a 2.2% pace shown in the first three months of this year.


3) Singapore’s non-oil shipment continues to decline in June

Singapore’s non-oil exports dropped in June from last year, pressured by declining both electronic and non-electronic shipments.

According to the official data released on Monday, non-oil domestic exports fell 15.5% in June, extending the negative trend from 14.8% contraction in May. Still, non-oil exports showed a growth of 5.4% on a monthly basis, which came after a 14.6% decline in May. It was lower than analyst’s expectations for a 5.9% decline.

Last week, official data showed that Singapore’s economy narrowly avoided a technical recession after reporting 0.7% YoY growth and 0.3% QoQ growth in the second quarter.

The reading was mostly in line with economists expectations polled by Reuters for a 0.6% YoY growth and 0.3% QoQ rise.

In the first quarter, Singapore’s economy fell by 0.4% QoQ on a seasonally adjusted basis, while recording a marginal growth of 0.4% from the same period of last year.