Kaohoon Morning Brief – 26 September 2023

1) FSS expects negativity in the Thai stock market, pressured by bond yields

Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move sideways to sideways-down trend with a crucial resistance level at 1,490-1,500 points, pressured by rising and high bond yield globally, resulting in a selloff in risk assets.

The analyst recommended investors to monitor Thai exports data for August today, which is expected to shrink 5% YoY, compared to a decline of 6.2% YoY in July. Trade deficit is expected at $1.8 billion.


2) Minneapolis’ Fed expects central bank to raise rates higher

Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, expected the central bank to continue raising borrowing rates and keep them high for some time to bring inflation to its target of 2% if  the U.S. economy is resilient enough.

“If the economy is fundamentally much stronger than we realized, on the margin, that would tell me rates probably have to go a little bit higher, and then be held higher for longer to cool things off,” he said on Monday.


3)  US shutdown would harm credit ratings, Moody’s says

Top credit agency Moody’s said on Monday that a U.S. government shutdown would harm the country’s credit.

The US Government is likely to be shut down at 00:01 AM on 1 October due to the failed Congress’s federal budget negotiation as GOP hard-liners still demand for a deeper cut.

US federal agencies need the funding through 12 different spending bills from the president and congress. The overall process is time consuming so usually, they’ll resort to using the Continuing Resolution (CR) as a temporary patch. Those unpaid will slated to receive the back pay once the funding law has been passed.